MARIUPOL, Ukraine – Mariupol, the biggest city in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk Oblast, is gearing up for the local elections on Oct. 25, with the Opposition Bloc expecting to do well.
The bloc, which emerged from the wreckage of the Party of Regions – the pro-Russian party of runaway ex-President Viktor Yanukovych – took 50 percent of the vote in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and still enjoys support in some parts of eastern Ukraine, including among Mariupol’s 500,000 residents.
But the effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine in the Donbas has also dented that support in many areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for logistical reasons, if no other. It is impossible for the government in Kyiv to organize elections in the parts of those oblasts where Russian-backed separatists have seize control.
Moreover, the elections will also not be held in some government-held areas along the war front where the government has deemed the security situation to be too fragile.
That’s not the case in Mariupol, where the elections will go ahead, even though the city is only 20 kilometers from the war front.
The city suffered a rocket attack on Jan. 21 that killed 30 people. According to a spot report by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, the Grad and Uragan rockets that hit the city’s eastern districts were fired from areas controlled by Russian-separatist forces.
Still, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has insisted on holding elections in Mariupol, despite its proximity to the war zone, and even though they will likely return an administration that has little fondness for Kyiv.
“I have made a decision that this city should become a symbol of Ukrainian Donbas and it will be unfair, to these people in the first place, not to trust them, and not to give the residents of Mariupol a chance to vote on their future administration,” Poroshenko said at a Regional Development Council meeting in Kyiv on Sept. 9.
But the president’s political opponents are still mistrustful of the head of state’s intentions, with the leader of the Opposition Bloc, Yuriy Boyko, calling on the Central Election Committee to ensure elections are held in all of Ukrainian-held Donbas, and claiming that by not holding the poll in some districts in the east meant the government could “slide into authoritarianism.”
Boyko also says that the government’s failure to hold elections in all of Ukraine would be a “violation of the Minsk peace agreements.”
The mayor of Mariupol, Yuriy Khotlubey, exemplifies the ambivalent attitude many of his city’s residents have towards the war. Speaking to the Kyiv Post in the lobby of the City Council, Khotlubey said that although he doesn’t support separatism, he’s not a supporter of the current government either.
“What if there hadn’t been any demonstrations in Kyiv? What if Yanukovych was still here? Would there be a war? I don’t think so,” Khotlubey said.
“Mariupol is a long way from Europe. How can the government in Kyiv, hundreds of miles away, want to seek more support from Europe, while Mariupol is (so close) to Russia?”
Indeed, many of Mariupol’s residents feel much closer to Russia than they do to Kyiv, and not just simply in terms of distance. While just under half of the city’s population describe themselves as ethnic Ukrainians, 44 percent identify as ethnic Russians, according to polling data from before the start of the conflict last year.
On top of that, the city is about 90 percent Russian-speaking, and your average Mariupol resident is much more likely to have visited Russia than anywhere in Europe. Many also have family ties to Ukraine’s giant eastern neighbor.
That affinity for Russia has consistently been reflected in voting patterns in Mariupol, and the country’s eastern oblasts, which were the electoral heartland for Ukraine’s previous pro-Russian governments and presidential administrations under Yanukovych. The Opposition Bloc, made up largely of those of Yanukovych’s allies who did not flee with him to Russia, is thus likely to inherit the pro-Russian, anti-Kyiv vote.
“It’s no secret that the Opposition Bloc has strong support in the government-held parts of Donetsk Oblast,” Khotlubey argues. “This government should do everything possible to hold elections in all of government-held Donetsk Oblast – that’s how a democratic country should work. They decided not to hold elections in some cities, under the false claim that there’s support for separatism.”
“In fact, Poroshenko is just showing that he’s afraid of the Opposition Bloc.”
Kyiv Post staff writer Stefan Huijboom can be reached at [email protected]
