The competition is on for the local elections in the remaining eastern power hubs of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, where the fall of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia's war and destabilization have created a political vacuum - and a fair share of scandal and power struggles.
“In eastern Ukraine, the elections are being held in a vacuum. Some political forces have left the scene, while others are appearing,” Vadim Karasev, director at the Institute of Global Strategy, said at a press conference on Oct. 8.
The loudest new party posturing as an alternative to the parliamentary mainstream is United Ukrainian Patriots (UKROP). Despite only being founded in June, it already stands to gain 5.8 percent of votes in the east according to Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
That’s more than than the Bloc of President Petro Poroshenko, with 5 percent, but less than the Party of Regions successor party, the Opposition Bloc, which leads with 11 percent.
Two of the lesser-known parties seeking to establish themselves as contenders in the east are Our Land and Revival.
On the surface, they are represented by several former prominent members of the Party of Regions who were close allies of Yanukovych.
Our Land comprises Odesa member of parliament Anton Kisse, Kharkiv businessman Oleksandr Feldman and former first deputy head of the Kyiv City Administration Oleksandr Mazurchak.
Likewise, Revival was founded by Viktor Bondar, former head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional administration and ex-Minister of Transport; Vitaliy Khomutynnik, long standing Party of Regions MP from 2002 until 2014, and Volodymyr Pylypenko, a former MP who aligned with Party of Regions in parliament.
But speculation surrounding who stands behind these parties is rife.
A scandal erupted two weeks ago when Maxim Yefimov, a member of parliament with the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, was found to be leading Our Land’s campaign in Kramatorsk and seeking to represent them in the City Council.
Our Land is a “Presidential Administration initiative,” Karasev told the Kyiv Post. According to him, the reason why the party might appear to be a competitor of Petro Poroshenko Bloc in certain cities is because they wanted to make it look like a real party but now they are worried it might take too many votes from the PPB candidates.
Oleksandr Chernenko, a lawmaker from PPB, flatly denied the party was connected to the Administration. He told the Kyiv Post by phone on Oct. 9 that Our Land was a “serious competitor” of his bloc and in many cities its black PR had been quite damaging. Our Land was unavailable for comment at the time of publication.
Revival and UKROP, on the other hand, are widely thought to be political projects of billionaire and recently unseated Dnipropetrovsk governor, Igor Kolomoisky.
UKROP’s founder and Kyiv mayoral candidate, Gennady Korban, told the Kyiv Post: “Ihor helps me with wise counsel and finances.”
“Revival is the political partner of UKROP, they are being financed from the same pocket,” Andriy Zolotarov, political expert and head of the center Third Sector, told news website Dnepr.Glavnoye.
However, Kirill Zakharov, a Revival candidate for the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council, denied any link to Kolomoisky: “Experts can say want they want but the party is backed by businessmen such as Volodymyr Kutsin [director of Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant]”.
How these parties are being tactically employed in different cities varies significantly and can be seen as a reflection of the ongoing power struggles and political bargaining in Ukraine’s post-Yanukovych era.
In the Dnipropetrovsk mayoral election, billionaire oligarch Rinat Akhmetov and Poroshenko are going head-to-head against Kolomoisky.
According to Karasev, even if inadvertently, the current and old powers are working in unison in so far as they see a threat of the appearance of new political projects. Poroshenko’s priority seems to be to prevent Kolomoisky’s UKROP candidate, Borys Filatov, from winning.
Just weeks before the elections, former Party of Regions, now a parliament member with the pro-presidential bloc, and four-term Dnipropetrovsk mayor incumbent Ivan Kulichenko stood down from the race without any explanation. PPB brushed off what should have been a major loss to their campaign and announced that Maksim Kuriachiy, former head of Dnipropetrovsk’s Batkivshchyna Party, would be its new mayoral candidate.
Political commentators say that PPB has purposely put forward a weak candidate in order to advance their supposed rival in the East, Opposition Bloc MP, former regional governor and vice Prime Minister, and Oleksandr Vilkul, against businessman Filatov.
The situation in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is even more intriguing.
A poll conducted between 12-13 Sept. by Active Group, a research and communication center, indicates that the incumbent mayor, Gennady Kernes, running for the Revival party, will easily win a majority with 39.9 percent of the vote and well-known businessman Oleksandr Feldman from Our Land will come second place with 16 percent.
The competition in Kharkiv, according to Karasev, is not who will win, but who will control the City Council which at the moment does not belong to anyone. Our Land will therefore be a strong opposition for Kernes in the City Council.
According to an Active Group poll taken in Kharkiv on Sept. 24, overall PPB only received 4.7 percent of the vote. The party has the resources but is “not popular” and “can’t influence the local elites”, said Karasev.
The Opposition Bloc’s City Council registration was rejected by the local Election Commission. Despite the party polling at just below Revival’s 13.9 percent with 13.1 percent, the party’s reaction has been surprisingly subdued.
Volodymyr Fesenko of the political research center Penta offered one possible explanation: “Kernes should win the election – but let’s not forget that he is on trial. So they could neutralize him after the elections.”
It remains to be seen who will succeed in filling the vacuum but what is clear is that further twists and scandals can be expected.
If it continues in this fashion, said Karasev, with all the other factors, the elections could be declared invalid and the same is true of Dnipropetrovsk.
