Although a trained economist, Vladislav Inozemtsev has found himself increasingly talking and writing about politics instead of Keynesian Economics or Market Socialism for the past two years ever since Russia first annexed Crimea in March 2014. Because the director of the Moscow-based Center for Post Industrial Studies often bases his arguments through the prism of economics, he conveys a unique perspective on current-day Russia and its geopolitical relations. When explaining his president of 15 years, Vladimir Putin, he throws in historical parallels as well, including Ukraine’s long and troubled history.
Inozemtsev had just arrived from a four-month fellowship at
the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia
in Berlin when he spoke to the Kyiv Post at the Yalta European Strategy in
Kyiv.
Not missing the European context of the 12 annual
conference, Inozemtsev immediately started talking about Ukraine’s role on the
continent.
Since Ukraine has geographically always been a “borderland,”
according to the economist, it has always faced the question of where it
belongs, “in Europe or with Russia.” For that reason given the nation’s state
of war and economic collapse, “it will be a problem for Europe, including
Russia, for several years to come and maybe decades,” he said.
By contrast Russia never was confronted with such decisions
because it sees itself as the “center of the world, the Third Rome,” Inozemtsev
said. So if Europe can succeed in bringing Ukraine into its fold along with
Moldova and Belarus, “it would be to its greatest advantage, it will have
completed the European project and make it self-sufficient – there is the
potential for the Ukrainian people to join Europe who are highly educated, who
have European roots, who although not politically correct, are Christians,” he
added.
Strong commitment from Brussels for EU accession, therefore,
is far more important than providing Kyiv with money. He cited how strong governing
and state institutions took root in countries like Poland in 2004 and even
Bulgaria in 2007 when they joined the political bloc stamping out corruption in
the process.
Unless an institutional framework doesn’t get cemented in Ukraine,
Inozemtsev doesn’t see investment coming in apart from individual investors
like Western banks or international corporations. “I am very skeptical, Ukraine
won’t be a top a top 10 transparent economy anytime soon,” he said.
Russia’s empire-building ambitions and its long history with
Kyiv dating to the 10th century from which it derives its historical genesis
have guided Moscow’s foreign policy of keeping Ukraine weak. Multiple layers
are the cause of this.
“Putin always felt that the whole of the Soviet Union was
Russia, that’s the first problem,” Inozemtsev said. “Taking Ukraine out is
taking out historic Russia. No one in Russia is concerned about Tajikistan as
an independent country because it was on the periphery, a colony. But Ukraine
was the centerpiece (of Russia), Crimea to Putin is a sacred place and that’s
not just rhetoric…so Moscow feels if Kyiv leaves that would spell the end of
their historic aspirations.”
Regarding Russia’s view of the West, Inozemtsev looked to
the past of explaining Putin’s actions and his disdain for democratic values. He
recalled what Novgorod Prince Alexander Nevsky did after defeating the
crusaders from Germany and Sweden by proclaiming himself a vassal to the Mongol
Horde.
Pointing out that the Mongols never imposed their religious
beliefs, “Putin thinks Europe wants to impose its values…being a colony of
China is better than being a part of Europe…that is the big divide between
Russia and Ukraine,” Inozemtsev said.
Thus the Kremlin leader is dangerous because of his “ideological
boldness, he was much ready to compromise back in 2005, now he’s categorical
and rejects the West,” he said.
“Putin feels like he could what he wants although now he’s
beginning to question what’s going on” in Donbas, Inozemtsev said, referring to
the conflict that has claimed 8,000 lives. The Russian president took Crimea because
he could, he calculated that the “West is weak, that it cannot act…but he didn’t
predict sanctions,” he said.
The EU doesn’t have a strategy neither for dealing with
Putin nor for the “post-Putin” period, the Russian economist said.
Likewise, “you simply cannot deal with him (Putin), he’s
unpredictable, he has ideological convictions that cannot be calculated,” he
said. “You shouldn’t look for a systemic relationship with Putin, just leave
him, wait and limit the damage that he is doing.”
What Ukraine could expect once Putin leaves power is for the
Kremlin to remain hostile toward Kyiv.
“The difference between the European and Russian elite is
that the Western elite elaborate a new vision or doctrine and bring it to the
public,” he said. “In Russia, the elite looks for what the public wants and
puts it in a doctrine and brings it back to them.”
Thus, “Russia is just trading in public opinion and the
public (right now) doesn’t want to give up Crimea,” Inozemtsev added.
Russia hasn’t become nationalistic, it has become “fascist”
that resembles Benito Mussolini’s Italy – “you have a one-party, unitary state”
– he said.
“Crimea isn’t about nationalism, it is about
empire-building. Putin fears nationalism and doesn’t want Nazis in Russia. He
understands you have ethnic republics and large ethnic minorities with
different religions, he realizes this,” Inozemtsev said.
Ukraine and Russia can still reconcile and do so in a few
years. The first step, according to him, is stop the propaganda on both sides, “in
Russia this is particularly important.”
He said the younger generation of Russians “thinks
realistically,” so if the “oppressive propaganda is lifted, it will be okay in
one to two years.”
The other half of the solution involves Russia treating
Ukraine as a “fully independent, fully sovereign state,” according to
Inozemtsev. “The problem with Russia because ‘it is so strong’ is that it never
wants to take lessons from others. We are brothers with long centuries of
history. We should combine this experience and learn from each other which is
something positive.”
He concluded: If there is the political task to restore
relations between Russia and Ukraine, it can be done in several years.”
Kyiv Post editor Mark
Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].
