Bankers predict stable hryvnia on the interbank exchange in June at between UAH 7.60 and UAH 7.70 per USD.
“The seasonal factor influences the hryvnia exchange rate at present. The hryvnia always revaluates by summer. Also, the National Bank of Ukraine took measures to regulate the currency position on banks. During the next month everything will be almost in the same regime (the exchange rate will be UAH 7.60-7.70 per USD),” said Vladyslav Bairaka, the chairman of the board of the Bank of Cyprus.
He presumed the situation will remain the same on the interbank in July. Meantime, he said it was hard to predict the development of the situation in August.
“In August, the market and the processes always start to liven [in Ukraine]. One should watch August and September,” the banker said.
Ihor Lviv, the deputy chairman of the board at Finance&Credit Bank, in his turn predicts the preservation of the current exchange rate of the hryvnia or even revaluation of the Ukrainian national currency.
“The exchange rate has stabilized and the search for an optimal exchange rate is underway to find the rate suitable for the current economic situation in the country. Slight revaluation can be expected like the revaluation we see today. There is slackness on the market in summer. I don’t think there will be shocks on the interbank and cash markets,” he said.
Ihor Lvov said the trend on the revaluation of the hryvnia will continue, even through the revaluation might be by kopecks or by factions of kopeck.
“We can see the situation even now that [cash] dollars are more sold [by the population] than bought. The development of the situation will depend on export-import operations and the trade balance,” he added.
Oleksandr Okhrimenko, an expert of Ukrhazbank, noted that the exchange rate of non-cash foreign currency is being formed purely under the influence of the operations between the market players [without the National Bank of Ukraine].
He further noted that the demand for foreign currency grows at the end of each month. The tendency is likely to continue in May, but one should not expect the growth in the demand can essentially strengthen the dollar.
The tendency can be changed only with the start of active crediting of the National Bank of Ukraine to commercial banks for saturation of the banking sector with money.
In this situation the purchase rate of the dollar can grow to UAH 7.7 per USD, but this will be a short-term phenomenon.
