The probability of a currency crisis in Ukraine in the period from July 2013 to July 2014 is 82%, according to a macroeconomic review from the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia, which has been posted on the Web site of the bank.
“In June 2013, the highest probability of a currency crisis in the next 12 months in Ukraine was 82%. Then the foreign exchange market in Belarus follows with 59%. For Kazakhstan, in June 2013 the probability of a currency crisis in the next 12 months was set at 12%,” reads the review.
According to the center, the probability of a currency crisis in Ukraine during 2015 will come close to 100%.
According to its forecast, the average annual exchange rate of hryvnia in 2013 will amount to UAH 8.18 per $1, in 2014 – UAH 8.59 per $1, inflation – 0.5% and 2% respectively. At the same time, the real growth of GDP in 2013 will stand at 0.6%, in 2014 – 2.6%, the foreign trade deficit – 8.3% of GDP and 10.9% of GDP respectively.
