Q & A with consultant-turned-politician Dmytro Vydrin, who serves as director of the European Institute of Integration and Development
lopment. He is the 92nd candidate for deputy on Yulia Tymoshenko’s political bloc running in this month’s parliamentary elections, making him one of a handful of political analysts who made the leap to active participation in politics this year. Vydrin, who served as an advisor to many political figures, including former President Leonid Kuchma, has a unique view of the Ukrainian political scene, saying that the best book which describes it is the Kama Sutra, adding that Ukrainian politicians remain the same people while their positions change. In this Feb. 27 interview, Vydrin shares more of his thoughts about Ukrainian political life.
KP: How many seats in the next parliament do you think the various political blocs will get?
DV: As a sociologist by training, I do believe in sociology. That’s why I’m not going to improvise, but refer to the results of recent polls. About 25 percent will vote for the Regions of Ukraine bloc, plus or minus 2 percent. The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc will get about 17-18 percent; Our Ukraine will get some 16-17 percent. (Note: while most current polls show Regions of Ukraine with more than 25 percent support, they differ on whether Our Ukraine or Tymoshenko’s bloc have more voter support).
KP: Who do you think the roughly 20 percent of undecided voters will vote for at the last minute and why?
DV: [Undecided voters] will not affect the whole picture. Experience shows that these votes are generally divided up proportionally between the most popular parties.
KP: Why did the coalition talks between Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine blocs break down last week? Was there really an interest by Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine to unite, or was it more of a PR masquerade by both sides, with each hoping to show that the other side didn’t want to unite?
DV: It was not a PR move. The situation was spontaneous and not a game. This situation makes me recall the history of all Ukrainian coalition attempts.
The first one was the so-called Kaniv Four, [a bloc ahead of the 1999 presidential elections established to challenge President Leonid Kuchma, who was running for re-election. The Kaniv Four consisted of Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz; former State Security Service Chief Yevhen Marchuk, Cherkasy Mayor Volodymyr Olinyk, and Verkhovna Rada Chairman Oleksandr Tkachenko. The coalition fell apart.]
Ukrainian political culture does not have a history of successful coalition building in a traditional sense. Here one can create a coalition only under a death threat, either political or physical. There is no physical death threat to politicians today. Therefore they are not going to form a coalition before the elections.
And after the elections, the situation will be different with the threat that the president will dissolve Parliament if deputies fail to form a coalition. Some sort of coalition will be formed, as a result.
KP: Then why do you think Our Ukraine bloc is trying to create a coalition through talks with Tymoshenko?
DV: It isn’t. It is trying to talk about a coalition, to create an impression that they are good, trying to reunite the Orange camp. In reality, the Our Ukraine bloc is least of all interested in forming a coalition. As a result, they are setting conditions which are unacceptable and refusing to accept decent conditions.
KP: What does Tymoshenko really want: to be prime minister or parliament speaker? Does not she need a position which keeps her in the spotlight all the time?
DV: She does not need to be in the spotlight, she needs authority. She has an unrealized messianic reform project called Beautiful Ukraine. This project is easier to implement as premier.
KP: There is talk that Victor Yushchenko and his Our Ukraine would rather form a majority with Victor Yanukovych?
DV: Yes, such negotiations are taking place.
KP: Why are the parties not open about this?
DV: Both sides are not interested in revealing this secret. If it becomes public knowledge, the Regions of Ukraine bloc might loose votes in Eastern Ukraine and Our Ukraine may loose its voter support in the west of the country.
I cannot give a definite answer, because I am not a part of negotiations, and I base this on the rumors, but according to trustworthy sources, such negotiations have been going on since last August-September.
KP: How would such a coalition benefit each side and who would they represent most?
DV: There practically was a coalition between Our Ukraine and Regions of Ukraine in the form of a memorandum signed late last year. First of all, being a member of a coalition will bring strong positions in authority and access to the financial flows.
Probably with such a coalition the position of a premier will be preserved for Yuriy Yekhanurov. The position of the parliament speaker will probably be given to the Party of Regions – and then the speaker will be Raisa Bogatyreva.
KP: How do you think Orange voters would respond to this?
DV: And how did they take the memorandum [between party of Regions and Our Ukraine]? They will grumble a little, and then calm down. I do not think there will be any significant shakes in the beginning.
Then if the coalition proves unstable, there will be some upheavals, first in the parliament.
KP: How stable could the coalition be?
DV: I think that during the next five years we will see at least five coalitions. The government will be changing as frequently as it used to change in Italy – once a year. In comparison, Ukraine has changed about 14 governments for the past 15 years.
KP: How probable is it that Tymoshenko and Yushchenko would establish a coalition after the elections?
DV: I would say that there is about a 60 percent chance that a coalition will be formed between the Regions of Ukraine bloc and Our Ukraine. Chances of a coalition between Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko are about 30-40 percent.
KP: What will Tymoshenko be doing in the next several years?
DV: If she will be in power, she will be building Beautiful Ukraine. If she is in opposition, she will be preventing those in power from building an ugly Ukraine.
KP: Is not the opposition a comfortable position for her politically? And didn’t she purposefully try to get fired last year as prime minister to clean her hands and go into the opposition?
DV: At a certain period, her opposition was advantageous for her and for society as well.
[Last year,] she wanted to be prime minister longer. And it came as a shock to her when she was fired. She really was sitting with the president all night before it happened, holding him by the hand. I saw her the very next day when she came back from the president’s [office]. And it was, I repeat, a real shock for her, when the president took his hand away from her, turned to Petro Poroshenko, and said to her: “You are fired.”KP: Tymoshenko keeps saying that the Orange camp should go into the elections as separate columns, not as a single bloc. Why? Is this to ensure that they can as separate blocs capture a part of the oppositionist electorate?
DV: They are going as separate columns, but personally I do not always agree with [Tymoshenko] on this. She says we should go as parallel columns and then unite. But in Euclidean geometry, the parallel lines never unite, they are growing apart more. I do not believe that unification will occur in the near future.
KP: If you look at the big picture, is it not the case that these elections will change Ukraine’s political arena substantially, meaning that many of the political forces of the past, such as the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united), will disappear from the arena?
DV: It will not change a lot. I have been watching Ukrainian politics since 1991. At one point I even counted the political elite – 68 people. Back in 1992 George Soros invited Ukraine’s elite to a buffet to Hotel Natsionalny in Kyiv. His assistants said that the capacity of the banquet hall was 68 people. Those 68 were invited. Since then almost all of them are still here, excluding two who passed away.
KP: What new forces are going to emerge?
DV: Pora-PRP emerged, which is a prototype of a new force and is likely to make it to the parliament. Of course their chances are not so high because of Pora itself, but rather thanks to [its recent new leader] Vitaly Klitschko. So, we will see new personalities, rather than new parties. I think that Economy Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk might go into politics. It is written all over his forehead that sooner or later he will be a prime minister. There are some new figures in the east. A new generation in their thirties is going to slowly penetrate into Ukrainian politics.
KP: At the account of what parties are they going to come in?
DV: Parties do not matter. Today a party is like a Brioni jacket. It is fashionable to wear Brioni today, tomorrow they will wear a Ferrer jacket. Most of our politicians have changed parties three to four times.
KP: Looking years ahead, how many political parties do you think Ukraine will have? It seems that the Communists are dying out, while about four parties have a long term future.
DV: The Communists are not dying. I recently had a talk with one of the leaders of Communist Party. I did not pay much attention to them; I just noticed that they have good television commercials in this year’s campaign. He told me that the Communists party began attracting creative progressive youth, which is slowing joining. For some young people, this party can be kind of hip.
KP: There has been some talk of impeaching the president within certain political circles. What do you think is the probability that a president will face impeachment after the new parliament is formed?
DV: Most likely if there is a dismissal of the parliament, this will trigger pre-term presidential elections. Parliament would impeach the president just as the president disbands parliament.
I believe that these two are interconnected. One would cause the other.
KP: What about Yushchenko’s health problems, will they be a factor in the future? There has been talk about the possibility of impeachment or resignation due to health problems linked with his poisoning.
DV: This would be a different situation. The president would have to state that he has health problems, [in which case he would resign.] In other countries there is a procedure to examine the health of a president. We do not have such proceedures to impeach the president on grounds of health here in Ukraine.The president could not appear in public for months, while his advisors try to convince everyone that he has a strong handshake and is healthy.
