Following Ukraine's successful placement this month of $2 billion of sovereign Eurobonds, analysts expect a succession of companies to follow suit and return to international capital markets for funding needs.
The appetite to lend and invest into Ukrainian debt is rebounding, as demonstrated by Ukraine’s first Eurobond placement since 2007, and its largest total to date.
The country’s government, on Sept. 17, placed one 10-year $1.5 billion bond at 7.8 percent and a 5-year $500 million bond at 6.9 percent. In comparison, Ukraine’s last pre-crisis Eurobond was a 10-year bond for $700 million placed at 6.75 percent in November 2007. More importantly, this month’s issue was several fold oversubscribed, showing that there ample investors and cash out on the market available for potential Ukrainian corporate issues.
The government had first attempted to place its bonds in July this year, but broke off the attempt as the Greek sovereign debt crisis pushed the yields demanded by investors to over 8 percent. Following Ukraine’s deal with the International Monetary Fund and subsequent upgrades from rating agencies, as well as the stabilization of the situation in Greece, the government decision to postpone the placement paid off.
Now analysts expect a number of Ukrainian companies, including those who also postponed Eurobond plans earlier in the year, to return to international capital markets for funding.
“Ukraine has got over the Greek hiccup,” said Kira Syvoplias of brokerage Millenium Capital. “The problem with low investor confidence is over, and the repercussions of the Greek crisis for Ukraine were not very significant.”
In fact, there was not long to wait. Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest bank by assets, placed a Eurobond on the same day as the government bond, raising $200 million after postponing earlier in the year.
According to Sergey Fursa of Kyiv-based brokerage Astrum Capital, state-owned Ukreximbank could be the next borrower, following a successful $500 million placement in April. Fursa also sees Pivdenniy Bank likely to resume plans to raise $100 million through bonds, and Ukrsibbank could likewise raise $500 million.
With Ukraine’s agriculture sector coming through the crisis relatively unscathed, a number of listed agriculture companies are queuing to place their first Eurobonds. Ukraine’s largest egg producer, Avangardco, acquired a Fitch rating at the end of August. A spokesperson for the company said the Eurobond placement was an on-going process the company would only be able to comment on in late October. Earlier the company spoke of the placement raising $200-$250 million.
Sunflower oil producer Kernel also indicated in early September an upcoming Eurobond placement, possible before the end of the month. Analysts put the placement at around $200 million, with the funds going towards acquisitions in 2011.
Media reported on Sept. 14 that farming company Mryia Agro Holding is planning to raise $300 million from a debut Eurobond sale this year. According to a Mriya source, however, the company is still studying the market. Mryia has ambitious plans to expand its landbank 2011-2013.
Much of Ukraine’s metal and mining sector is still reeling from the crisis, with billionaire Viktor Pinchuk’s steel pipe manufacturer Interpipe this week gaining approval from creditors to restructure $200 million worth of pre-crisis Eurobonds. One exception is iron ore producer Ferrexpo, which is likely to go ahead with a $300-500 million Eurobond it postponed in July, according to Syvoplias.
Analysts thus see the total volume of corporate Ukrainian Eurobonds issued in 2010 as approaching $3.5 billion, with the total to date $2.3 billion, according to Mykyta Mykhaylychenko at Concorde Capital. Yields will range from 9.5-11 percent for corporates, with quasi-sovereign borrowers like Ukreximbank closer to 9 percent.
