The Russian Economic Development Ministry has worked up and submitted to the government scenarios for the conditions and main parameters for a long-term socioeconomic development forecast to 2030, in which it says Russia cannot expect the economy to expand upwards of 5% per year even in the event of an innovation development scenario, but can expect 4%-5% growth.
Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters that in the 2000s Russian economic growth averaged around 7% and was largely driven by the improvement of the external economic situation, growth in the production and export of hydrocarbons and crude, and general advantages of overtaking development (around 4 percentage points of GDP per year).
The contribution of accruing capital and increased employment added around 2.5 percentage points to GDP growth, but the innovation component of development was estimated at 0.5 percentage points.
After the 2008-2009 crisis and the completion of the revitalization period, a new phase of Russian economic development arrived where the structure of the forces driving growth changed fundamentally, he said.
"The effect of the improvement of foreign economic affairs and growth in the oil and gas complex is weakening considerably and cannot provide more than 1.5 percentage points of GDP growth over the long haul, in the main due to the effect of overtaking development. The contribution of accrued capital and employment is estimated at 1.3-1.4 percentage points, and the effect of employment will be negative because of its substantial contraction. At the same time, the role of the innovation factor of growth is significantly increasing and is estimated in the innovation variant at minimum at 1.5-1.8 percentages points, or more than a third of the projected growth of the economy," Klepach said.
Oil prices in the long term will be one of the important factors driving economic growth, he said.
If oil prices are low (slow growth from $82 per barrel in 2012 to $113 in 2030, but in real terms are stable – roughly at $80 per barrel in 2010 prices) the economy will be growing at an average of 3.0% per year over the next twenty.
In the main scenarios, which suppose oil prices in real terms rising 1% and in nominal terms from $97 per barrel in 2013 to $158 in 2030, additional annual economic growth from the "oil factor" will average 0.5-0.6 of a percentage point per year.
In the conservative energy-primary commodity scenario of development (of the two main scenarios, the second being innovation) the potential growth rate of the Russian economy will not exceed 3.5%-3.6% per year, the Economic Development Ministry calculates. The conservative scenario is based on the active modernization of the fuel and energy and primary commodities sectors of the Russian economy given the retention of a relative lag in the civilian high and middle technology sectors.
The innovation scenario, Klepach said, is characterized by higher import-replacement and innovative company activities, and by more private and state investments in the development of human capital, innovation and transport infrastructure. "These factors will increase the average rate of GDP growth by 0.8 of a percentage point per year in comparison with the parameters of the conservative scenario," he said. In this scenario, the ministry predicts average annual growth of 4.1% per year in 2011-2015, 4.8% in 2016-2020, 4.4% in 2021-2025, and 4.3% 2026-2030.
