The European Union is ready to sign the association agreement with Ukraine next year if the nation shows progress in a number of areas, including solving the problem of selective justice.
Analysts believe that this
incentive, coupled with targeted sanctions, may keep Ukraine away
from joining the Russia-dominated Customs Union and from sliding into
authoritarianism.
The council of the
European Union that consists of the foreign ministers of the EU
countries formed on Dec. 10 their conclusions for how to deal with
Ukraine after the Oct. 28 parliamentary election.
According to the decision,
the EU decided to offer Ukraine another chance to sign the deal in
2013 by showing improvement in three areas – setting up reliable
election system together with the opposition, including the adoption
of the election code, solve the problem of selective justice, in
particular, by implementing rulings of the European Court for Human
Rights, and adopt economic reforms needed to prepare the country for
establishing free trade area with the EU.
“The council reaffirms its obligation to sign the initialing of the
agreement…including the deep and comprehensive free trade
agreement, as soon as the Ukrainian government will show decisive
action and tangible progress in the three areas mentioned earlier,
perhaps before the Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013. The
signing may be accompanied by a preliminary effect of individual
parts of the agreement,” reads the EU council’s conclusions on
Ukraine.
It
also called upon Ukraine to improve its “deteriorating
business and investment climate.”
The Council referenced the
OSCE’s assessment of the parliamentary election, pointing out some
irregularities and regression from the previously achieved results.
Previously, one of the
prerequisites to signing the agreement was to hold free and fair
parliamentary election in October. From the recent decision it is
clear that the EU decided to change this point by giving Ukraine’s
authorities another chance to improve its election track record
through adoption of comprehensive election legislation along with the
opposition, eliminating some irregularities that exist in the current
election laws.
A number of Ukrainian
foreign policy analysts recently called on the EU to sign the
association agreement with Ukraine next year out of fear that Kyiv
may join the Customs Union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to get
cheaper gas from Russia.
Valeriy Chaly, analyst at
the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center, told Lb.ua news website that although
he welcomes signing of the association agreement between Brussels and
Kyiv next fall, it is a rather “optimistic” scenario.
For more than two years
since Viktor Yanukovych took over the presidency he has
unsuccessfully tried to renegotiate the gas price with Moscow.
Instead Russia has been
trying to attract Ukraine into the Customs Union in exchange for
lower gas prices, which is strongly needed for Ukraine’s
cash-strapped economy.
“The possibility of
signing the association agreement with the EU next year may become
one of the carrots to keep Ukraine away from the Customs Union,”
said political analyst Oleksiy Haran.
He says it would be wrong
for the EU to sign the agreement with Ukraine only to discourage the
the nation from joining the Customs Union. Instead, he called the
recent cancellation
of a U.S. visa for Ukraine’s Deputy Prosecutor General Renat Kuzmin
a good example of targeted sanctions to not let Ukraine slide further
into authoritarianism.
“Such a two-track
approach, on the one hand, offering association agreement and, on the
other hand, applying some targeted sanction against selected
individuals [in Ukraine] may really stop Ukraine from sliding into
authoritarianism,” said the analyst.
Kyiv Post staff writer
Yuriy Onyshkiv can be reached at [email protected]
