The National Exit Poll 2014 consortium, consisting of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), and the Razumkov Center, will conduct a national exit poll on May 25, the day of presidential elections in Ukraine.
“To make the data more reliable, two independent research companies
with independent interview networks are involved. The selection [of
respondents] will be also be divided in two parts, and the agreement of
these results is an additional quality criterion for the data obtained,”
scientific director at the KIIS Natalia Kharchenko said at a press
conference on May 15 in Kyiv.
In turn, Director of Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Iryna Bekeshkina said that in fact there would be two exit polls
conducted simultaneously that “will be merged together in cases where
there are no significant discrepancies.”
According to deputy director at Razumkov Center Mykhailo Mischenko, a
comparison of results by the Razumkov Center and KIIS during previous
exit polls showed that the deviation of their data didn’t exceeded 1%.
A total of 17,000 respondents at 400 voting stations (200 for each
company) will be surveyed during the national exit poll. The exit poll
will cover voters from all regions of Ukraine, except for those at
special stations: hospitals, prisons, military bases and foreign
stations.
The sociologists expect that the survey’s statistical margin of
error, including the design effect, won’t exceed 1.3%. However, there
may be systematic margins of error that depend on various factors. Based
on the experience of previous exit polls, the researchers expect that
survey’s margin of error won’t exceed 2.5% for the leaders in the
presidential race, and 1% for other candidates.
A secret vote technique will be used during the poll. Instead of the
direct question “Who did you vote for?” respondents will fill out a
questionnaire starting with this question.
Besides, the questionnaire will require information about
respondent’s gender, age group, education and time needed to decide whom
to vote for. There will also be optional demographical questions.
The preliminary results of the national exit poll will be announced
at a press conference at the Ukrinform news agency at 2001 on May 25,
right after polling stations close. The results will be based on data
collected two hours before the election ends that is phoned in from
reseachers. At 2300, there will be a press conference to announce
updated data from those stations at which the poll is to be conducted up
until the close of voting. These data will also be phoned in. The
detailed exit poll results will be published approximately on June 3,
after the paper questionnaires are all received.
The realization of the project will be conducted under the
supervision of supervisory council including leaders of NGOs, leading
Ukrainian journalists, and domestic and foreign experts. Consultations
and checks during the carrying out of the poll will be provided by
international experts from Russia, Poland and the United States.
