The upcoming by-elections to the Verkhovna Rada in June ... may become a key factor in shaping Ukraine's political landscape.
was published in the April 18 issue of the English language edition of Den newspaper. The authors, Vladyslav Rohovets and Mykhailo Besarab, write about the upcoming parliamentary by-elections that are scheduled to be held in 10 constituencies in June. The Central Election Commission called the elections to fill vacant seats in the Verkhovna Rada after they were freed by the recent appointment of a number of lawmakers to the Cabinet.
The epicenter of political life in Ukraine is likely to shift to the regions soon. The upcoming by-elections to the Verkhovna Rada in June, as Presidential Chief-of-Staff Volodymyr Lytvyn has recently put it, may become a key factor in shaping Ukraine's political landscape.
Although the elections are to be held in only 10 constituencies (candidates are to be nominated May 2 to May 22), the event is already drawing close attention of politicians and the media.
One of the underlying reasons is that integrity and prospects of the recently formed parliamentary majority remain highly problematic. In a situation when one or two majority factions can split at any time, the value of every vacant seat increases.
Secondly, a number of influential political figures still don't have the lawmaker status but are willing to acquire it. What makes the whole intrigue exciting is the caliber of the potential candidates.
Orest Krasivsky, leader of the Lviv oblast branch of the Democratic Union party, said at a March 20 press conference that one of his fellow party members, former Information Minister Zinovy Kulyk, could be nominated in the region.
While that same Constituency No. 115 looks good for another contender, former Deputy Speaker Viktor Musiyaka, Kulyk seems to stand a good chance of winning in Lviv, given support from the local authorities and a number of local media outlets.
Even the Lviv mayor, Vasyl Kuibida, could step in, since he has always kept his nose to the wind blowing from Kyiv. Yet the situation is not so simple. Kuibida, a veteran adherent of Rukh, will have to reckon with what the party leadership and electorate will have to say. Many analysts believe that the strongest Rukh candidate is the son of late Viacheslav Chornovil, Taras. His last name and support from local powerful rightist parties would make Taras Chornovil one of the campaign's front-runners.
The efforts of other nationalist parties will likely focus on Ternopil oblast, where Constituency No. 167 became vacant after Ivan Drach's appointment as chairman of the State Committee for Information Policy.
In the 1998 election, Drach edged out his rival from the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists, Serhy Zhyzhko, by a 0.5 percent margin. Zhyzhko could count on a victory this time, but his plans could be frustrated by Ihor Bakai, former chairman of the state oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy, if he decides to run in this constituency.
Yet, Bakai may be more interested in Constituency No. 64 in Zhytomyr. Made vacant after Yury Yekhanurov joined the Cabinet as the first deputy prime minister, this constituency has a history of tough competition among participating candidates. During the last parliamentary elections four candidates collected 11 percent to 17 percent of votes here. This time, Oleksandr Suhoniako, president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, could also join the race.
Plans of another has-been, former Prime Minister Valery Pustovoitenko, are of no lesser interest to political analysts. Rumor has it that he has been actively promoted as the next chief of Naftogaz, but his political future still remains unclear. So getting into parliament might be a good way for Pustovoitenko, who also heads the Popular Democratic Party, to save his political face (after all, Speaker Ivan Pliushch is also a PDP member).
On the other hand, winning the election for the former premier, whose attempts to cure Ukraine's devastated economy could hardly make him popular among the impoverished electorate, would be a no easy task.
The latest information from reliable sources at PDP has it that Valery Pustovoitenko might run in Constituency No. 143 in Odessa oblast. If so, the choice is easy to explain: PDP member Serhy Hrynevetsky heads the Odessa oblast administration.
But the upcoming parliamentary elections is just one aspect of political developments in the regions. Early municipal elections are to be held in Mykolayiv, Zaporizhia and Vinnytsia. There is every reason to expect the struggle for key regional posts to heat up. In view of the [2002] parliamentary elections, the most influential political groups will likely focus their effort on the regions. Technically, regional influence is among the most significant factors to be considered when planning nationwide political actions (referendums, elections, etc.). Thus control over local authorities becomes a top priority for all those holding key positions in the upper echelons of power. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why the leadership of the Social Democratic Party (united) will attempt to retain control over Vinnytsia. Here the former United Social Democrat Borys Vakhovsky is considered the front-runner.
There is yet another nuance deserving attention. Many political parties, confident that the early parliamentary elections will be held come what may, already placed all their electoral reserves on the alert. In addition, the next parliamentary elections will witness competition of unprecedented severity. This will tempt many political groups to use the by-elections to carry out field tests of their campaign strategies.
