The fall of Ukraine's GDP in 2009 could be 15% with 14.5-15% inflation, the chairman of the Ukrainian accounting Chamber, Valentyn Symonenko, has said.
“We’ll see a fall of at least 15% in GDP by the end of the year,” he said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
As reported, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry expects that GDP will fall by 10-12% in 2009.
Symonenko said that excessive optimism of government assessments of
the economy this year are leading to distortion of forecasts for 2010.
“The whole macroeconomic base is not in line with reality. No forecast is in line with the present situation,” he said.
The accounting chamber said that inflation in 2010 is expected 12%, while the government expects 9.7%.
Symonenko said he doubted of the forecast for the average hryvnia
exchange rate, which is seen at UAH 7.5/$1 by the cabinet, is
realistic. He also said that the government’s present debt policy is
leading the country to default.
“The report on the state debt for 2008 submitted by the Finance
Ministry and the Treasury is not in line with the actual situation….
The government and Finance Ministry are continuing to build a financial
pyramid, [and] the whole country could find itself under the rubble [of
this structure],” he said.
He said that the aftermath of the sharp increase in the state debt during the economic crisis would be felt in early 2010.
Commenting on the Pension Fund, he said that there are not enough
funds in the consolidated system to pay pensions, and progress in
reforming the sector is not being made.
He said that in 2008 the deficit of the Pension Fund’s budget came
to UAH 6 billion, and in 2009 it is planned at UAH 13 billion and in
2010 at UAH 18 billion. The hole in the fund’s balance sheet is plugged
using funds from the national budget, which leads to a cut in the
financing of other state programs, he said.
Speaking about possible options to solve the problem, Symonenko said
that it is necessary to increase wages in the country and optimize the
expenses of the Pension Fund.
He said that 38,000 people work at the fund, and UAH 2.2-2.4 billion are spent on their wages.
