In either case, Socialist Party will likely factor in with possible deciding vote
Three weeks before the parliamentary elections, it is clear that Ukraine’s main in political parties will not form a coalition until after the ballots have been cast, and the question of who will form a coalition remains as open as ever.
Analysts predict that two coalition configurations are possible: Either the old Orange coalition between President Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine bloc and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc will be restored, or a coalition between Our Ukraine and the Donetsk-based Regions bloc will come together.
In either case, the Socialist Party of Ukraine will likely factor in, since it has a possible deciding vote, and neither potential coalition configuration can produce a solid majority based on just two blocs.
Unwilling to reveal his political cards ahead of the elections, Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz remains tight-lipped, evading inquiries as to whether his party prefers an Orange coalition and refusing to say whether the Socialists would join up with the Regions bloc, a foe of the Orange camp during the 2004 presidential poll.
“It does not make sense talking about forming a coalition before the election results are known,” Moroz said, adding that, theoretically, his party could hold negotiations on the creation of a coalition with any political force, including the Regions bloc, which Orange coalition members and the Socialists so adamantly opposed during the Orange Revolution.
Meanwhile, analysts say it is likely that the Socialists will join a coalition no matter who forms it for the sake of preserving their positions in the government.
Commenting on a possible coalition between the Regions, Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko blocs, an alliance which might not need his party’s extra votes, Moroz insists that such a configuration is unlikely.
“It will be difficult for [political groups] to embrace each other, because they are fighting for executive power,” Moroz said, referring to Tymoshenko’s demands to return as prime minister after this month’s parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Viktor Yushchenko continues to stand by his current prime minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, rejecting Tymoshenko’s claim to the post.
Orange coalition unlikely
Political analysts have in recent weeks dubbed an Our Ukraine-Regions coalition as the most likely post-election configuration, adding that such an alliance would make for a strong parliamentary majority if joined by another political bloc likely to win a lot of seats, such as Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc.
But Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc has criticized Our Ukraine’s alleged coalition negotiations with the Regions bloc, vowing never to form an alliance with the Orange camp’s foe from the 2004 presidential race.
Byut has called for a coalition of the political forces that rallied together during the turbulent 2004 elections: Byut, the Socialists and Our Ukraine.
But political analysts claim such a coalition would be unstable.
Ihor Kohut, a political analyst with the Laboratory of Legislative Initiative, said that while the three parties were aligned against former President Leonid Kuchma and his hand-picked successor, Region’s Viktor Yanukovych, their ideologies differ greatly.
“This type of coalition would be weak, with constant inner conflicts,” Kohut said.
Tymoshenko and the Socialists, for example, oppose privatization of strategic state assets; Our Ukraine supports it. Tymoshenko and the Socialists have called for more privatization reviews of past state sales that were allegedly conducted illegally; Our Ukraine has called for reviews to be halted, arguing that they spook investors. The Region’s party stance on these and other key issues coincides closer with Our Ukraine’s.
Our Ukraine, Regions and the Socialists?
Analysts have predicted that the most likely coalition after the elections would be based on an alliance between the Yushchenko-loyal Our Ukraine bloc and Yanukovych’s Regions. The Socialists are likely join in order to preserve their influence.
Kohut said that the Socialists will likely attempt to join a parliamentary majority, asking for a few posts in the next government, rather than being left once again in the opposition. But they will not be as influential in the likely coalition to be formed between Our Ukraine and Regions.
They are “interested in preserving their position in the government,” Kohut said.
Of the 450 deputies in Parliament, 30 are currently Socialists. There are three Socialist ministers in the current government: Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, Education Minister Stanyslav Nikolayenko and Agriculture Minister Oleksandr Baranivsky, as well as Valentyna Semenyuk, who chairs the State Property Fund.
Polls show that the Socialists have up to around 6 percent voter support, trailing Regions, which has almost 30 percent, and Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s bloc, both of which have just under 20 percent. The Communist Party of Ukraine has about 5 percent voter support.
The deciding vote
According to Kohut, the Socialists are not the only bloc with the so-called deciding vote. Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc, which has about 4 percent electoral support, could also make the difference in forming a new coalition.
Political experts are predicting several scenarios that could unfold in the creation of a post-election parliamentary majority, and many of them agree on one thing: Any coalition will be configured around at least two of the three leading contenders: Regions, Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s Byut. Experts also say that the Socialists or Lytvyn’s bloc could have deciding votes in these potential coalitions, boosting their bargaining chips during negotiations.
Keeping them happy will be central in getting legislation passed and preserving the stability of a future coalition government.
The constitutional reforms that went into effect as of January 2006 transformed Ukraine from a presidential to a parliamentary republic. According to Ukrainian legislation, the new parliament will have to form a majority of at least 226 seats within a month after the elections, otherwise the president is entitled to dismiss the legislature.
Analysts say, however, that deputies will likely try to create a majority closer to 300, a constitutional majority. The parliamentary coalition will be responsible for forming a new government.
Moroz, however, appears unwilling to reveal his cards, while trying to boost his position ahead of talks. He said that the Socialists were not a member of the so-called Orange coalition during the 2004 presidential contest and never joined it afterwards. Instead, he insists, the Socialists merely supported the political change that was taking place during the 2004 presidential elections. Analysts said the Socialists’ rating dropped after the events surrounding the Orange Revolution, adding that Moroz, one of the most experienced Ukrainian politicians, will now be especially cautious about joining forces with any political parties.
