Economy, graft top election agenda
Empty pocketbooks,corruption and bitter disenchantment with the failings of a young democracy are far and away the dominant issues in the current parliamentary election campaign, say political observers.
But politicians hoping to capitalize on those concerns may be wasting their time, warn the analysts. Many Ukrainians who have lost their faith in politics will simply stay home on March 29. And even those who come to the polls are likely to vote against incumbents rather than for candidates peddling the most attractive promises. ‘People do not think the elections will change anything,’ said Ilko Kuchariv, director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation. ‘As people don’t see any reforms, they are becoming poorer and poorer. They don’t understand what can be done to change the situation and they don’t trust political leaders. They don’t have [good] prospects.’ Democratic Initiatives has been polling Ukrainians on their political and social attitudes annually since 1994. The results of the latest survey show a cynical electorate dissatisfied with low living standards and increasingly unwilling to take on civic responsibilities. Of the 1,800 people questioned in June 1997, 73 percent said their living conditions had worsened in the last year. Ukrainians are also increasingly troubled by rising crime, diminishing medical services and job security and an abiding pessimism about the future.
Worse still, people are at a loss to identify the policies needed to improve their lot. Another poll conducted jointly this year by Democratic Initiatives and Socis Gallup illustrated the confusion. Thirty-seven percent of the respondents said they would be more likely to support a candidate advocating faster ‘market reforms,’ while just 11 percent opposed that stance. But central planning also proved popular: 37 percent said it was a good campaign plank compared with 21 percent who viewed it as a negative. ‘They are unhappy with this situation, but in any transitional society people have an ambivalent mentality,’ said Kuchariv. ‘At the same time they want to have a market economy and they want to have [social] protection.’ At least the nation admits its ignorance. The annual Democratic Initiatives survey found that only 10 percent of respondents felt they had a sufficient understanding of contemporary politics, and a similarly low proportion said they were well versed in economics.
‘Voters don’t exactly know what they want,’ said Ivan Lozowy, executive director of the Institute of Statehood and Democracy. ‘They will mention politicians they can trust, change for the better in terms of living conditions, and wages paid.’
Public anger over the Hr 5.2 billion backlog of unpaid wages has encouraged some candidates to promise voters higher pensions and the timely payment of salaries, according to Serhy Odarych, director of the Ukrainska Perspektyva think tank. Many voters blame salary delays on unscrupulous officials, making corruption the top issue in this campaign, Odarych said.
‘The main dissatisfaction of people is connected with … corruption within the government,’ he said. ‘Today the greatest part of the population would like to make a living for themselves but it is impossible due to corruption. You’ll hear people saying every day that there are no pensions because [the funds] have all been stolen, there is no investment because it has all been stolen.’ Odarych supports the Forward Ukraine election bloc, which has made corruption its top campaign issue. Others questioned that premise, however, noting that corruption permeates all levels of society, from the entrepreneurs who avoid paying taxes and the doctors who charge for ostensibly free medical services to the government bureaucrats lining their pockets with public funds.
‘Of course crime and corruption are big issues, but they are not so important from the point of view of the general public as their own situation,’ said Kuchariv. Even if the voters knew how solve such problems, they would still be at a loss as to which of the 30 parties contesting the elections with sound-alike names and platforms was best qualified for the job.
Although most parties have drafted vague (and largely unread) programs, many of the newer groups are counting on the name recognition of celebrities to propel them into power, or at least significance. The prospect of Ukraine’s future hinging on the political affiliation of a soccer player or an actor is grim enough. Yet some analysts argue that the ability of such parties as Rukh, the Communists and People’s Democrats to build loyal constituencies will further diminish the importance of policy issues in this campaign.
‘Once [people] are loyal to a particular line or political group, it’s not a rational choice based on what’s best for the country, its substantially made on emotion or personal experience,’ said Lozowy, himself a Rukh loyalist. Perhaps more importantly, even well-established parties hoping to attract the majority of uncommitted voters must be mindful of the electorate’s anti-incumbent mood, said analysts.
The Communists, for example, have been able to translate their opposition to government policies into a big lead in the polls. By contrast, Rukh has been tainted by its recent history of grudging cooperation with the ex-communists it once opposed. And the People’s Democratic Party, home to many executive branch bigwigs, is making halfhearted attempts to shake off its ‘party of power’ label. ‘The most dominant issue will be people voting against something,’ said Odarych. ‘The negative attitude towards the government will define the results of the election. The basic motive people have is to vote against those in power.’
Lawmakers are not immune to such anger. ‘There’s a major bias against serving deputies,’ said Lozowy. Such is public disaffection with politics that many people may simply stay home, according to Lozowy. ‘They say, ‘Why should we vote?’ As if voting is something that brings benefit to those in power. They’re creating the impression that someone up there wants them to vote,’ he said. ‘It’s relatively nonsensical, but in the absence of knowledge it’s understandable.’
Thus only 44 percent of those surveyed by Socis Gallup and Democratic Initiatives said they would definitely vote, while 38 percent said they would stay at home. The primary reason given for abstaining was lack of faith in politicians.
Whatever Ukrainians want, it is clear they don’t expect it from politics. Political parties were named as the least influential and trustworthy institutions in the Democratic Initiatives Fund survey. Just 21.6 percent of the respondents said that politicians of whatever stripe played a powerful role in shaping the Ukrainian state. Twice as many named the mob and criminals as major players. ‘It’s a deep-seated, long-term trend, disenchantment with politics and politicians,’ said Lozowy, who predicted that Ukraine’s democracy would pay a high price in the long term.
Odarych, on the other hand, was more sanguine. ‘It’s a common situation for many countries that a huge part of the population don’t really believe politics can change things,’ said Odarych. ‘It’s an absolutely normal situation.’
