Behind the scenes, the key players drew closer toward agreement on distributing positions of power and protecting business interests
Ukraine’s proWestern political forces advanced toward forming a government on Oct. 17 when their leaders presented a Democratic Forces coalition agreement, endorsed the same day by President Viktor Yushchenko.
Among the main provisions of the pact between the Yulia Tymoshenko (Byut) and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense (OUPSD) blocs were eliminating prosecutorial immunity and benefits enjoyed by lawmakers, boosted social payments in the 2008 national budget and passing a law defining and enhancing the opposition’s authority.
Behind the scenes, the key players drew closer toward agreement on distributing positions of power and protecting business interests, which observers said are the real foundations upon which the next government will emerge.
“In theory, coalitions are supposed to be formed based on principles, values and approaches,” said Svitlana Kononchuk, director of political programs at the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, which is financed by the National Endowment for Democracy and other international sources.
“Instead, they are strictly distributing positions. Positions are currently being distributed in a shadow regime, and the coalition will be formed based on these positions and who Yushchenko favors.”
Distributing posts is particularly important considering that living up to the coalition agreement’s goals could be challenging, even though the future coalition will be the first time the Orange team holds a parliamentary majority, albeit, razor-thin.
Among the promises are ending mandatory military service by Jan. 1, paying parents $5,000 for the birth of a third child and compensating Ukrainians the estimated $120 billion they lost in bank deposits during the devastating hyperinflation of 1991-1995.
An Orange coalition will produce Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister, while everything else seems to be negotiable.
The frontrunner for the parliament chairmanship, or speaker post as it is commonly referred to, is national democrat stalwart and Our Ukraine member Vyacheslav Kyrylenko. OUPSD bloc leader Yuriy Lutsenko wants to return as internal affairs minister, Ukraine’s top law enforcement authority, and presidential confidante Petro Poroshenko reportedly wants to become National Bank chair.
Yushchenko and the pro-presidential OUPSD bloc are reluctant to give the parliament chair post to Volodymyr Lytvyn in exchange for the 20 parliamentary votes he can offer the coalition, observers said.
“The parliamentary chairmanship is critical to Our Ukraine,” said Yuriy Syrotiuk, a political analyst with the Kyiv-based Open Society Foundation, which is financed by the American and British governments.
“Otherwise, they will have to go through Lytvyn to pass any laws. So, Our Ukraine will do everything to keep control of that position.”
If dealing with each other wasn’t hard enough, the Orange forces are also reconciling with the Party of Regions, Ukraine’s most popular political force, which represents the country’s biggest businessmen.
Throughout the week, Party of Regions leaders made clear their distaste for being in the opposition and dismissed Tymoshenko’s offer of sharing secondary government posts in an Orange government. A so-called uncompromising approach by Tymoshenko in negotiations also irks the Party of Regions.
“Offending opponents, calls for revenge, populist slogans and political blackmail testifies to the desire of certain politicians to return to Ukraine the principle, ‘If we won, you’re finished!’,” the Party of Regions stated in an Oct. 15 press release.
“Recent history demonstrated the senselessness of such approaches. Such politics are a form of war and unacceptable for contemporary democratic countries.”
Party of Regions tycoons, particularly Rinat Akhmetov, want assurances that their vast industrial assets will be protected, Syrotiuk said, which might pave the way for them taking a backseat in Ukrainian politics.
Recently, Tymoshenko demonstrated she remains an advocate for re-nationalizing and re-privatizing properties bought and sold under murky conditions. It is no surprise considering the reputation she gained after leading the re-privatization of the Kryvorizhstal steel mill in 2005.
Following Akhmetov’s controversial purchase of a significant stake in Dniproenergo, Ukraine’s largest electricity-generating plant, Tymoshenko proposed a return of the shares for an open, public auction.
After a gas explosion destroyed a Dnipropetrovsk residence that killed at least 17 on Oct. 14, Tymoshenko suggested the government re-nationalize Ukraine’s decaying natural gas-distribution systems.
Meanwhile, signs of backroom wheeling and dealing surfaced in recent weeks.
Observers speculated that Yushchenko’s decision not to interfere with Akhmetov’s acquisition of the Dniproenergo shares, which enabled him to gain control of 47 percent of Ukraine’s electricity-generating market, quite possibly reveals the tip of an iceberg.
“Akhemtov has no guarantee from Tymoshenko the government won’t take his assets, and Yushchenko understands this,” Syrotiuk said.
Yushchenko has appointed a high-ranking Lytvyn Bloc politician, Oleksiy Harkush, as chair of the Mykolayiv state regional administration, which is the presidency’s arm in local government. The move reveals agreements might already exist with Lytvyn.
Political forces have 10 days to appeal the official election results, which were announced by the Central Election Commission on Oct. 15.
No government institution is expected to consider any appeals seriously. Once the 10-day period clears, the elected politicians will call the first session of the sixth convocation of parliament, organize into factions and form the coalition majority.
All the coalition deputies are required to sign an agreement that states the coalition’s political platforms and goals. The Ukrainian Constitution doesn’t require anything specific in the agreement, except that all participating deputies sign it.
The 2010 presidential election is a looming cloud affecting the current coalition-forming process, Kononchuk said.
Tymoshenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych are positioning themselves for a presidential run. For both of them, they view the current Ukrainian president as an impediment to achieving political and business goals, observers said.
“The Party of Regions’ key interest is the battle for the presidency in 2010, regardless of how much they’re integrated in current relations,” Kononchuk said.
Meanwhile, Yushchenko is holding out hope for his own re-election, which at this point seems highly unlikely.
Among his main demands in the current coalition talks is amending the January Cabinet of Ministers law that significantly curtailed presidential authority. Beyond merely repealing the recent limits on his authority, Yushchenko is still attempting to increase the presidency’s influence, Kononchuk said.
“Yushchenko wants another five years as president,” Kononchuk said. “He wants to change the political situation. After all, is he supposed to just fold his hands?”
