President Victor Yushchenko dissolved the parliament on Oct. 8. A new election is expected in mid-December, as the Constitution allows 60 days for preparation from the date the president’s dissolution decree is published.
“In this state of affairs, when parliamentary forces have cornered themselves, the Ukrainian people have to have their say,” Yushchenko said in a televised address to the nation.
He said he decided to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada because, after the breakup of the ruling coalition on Sept. 3, the parliament was making decisions that were “ruining Ukraine.”
“The democratic coalition – I am sure of it – was ruined by the ambitions of a single person,” he said.
Under Ukraine’s Constitution, the president has the right, but no obligation, to call for an early election if parliament fails to form a coalition in 30 days. The deadline ran out on Oct. 3, and Ukrainians are expected to go to the polls for the third time in as many years.
A snap election is actually disadvantageous for the pro-presidential Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense bloc that would only gain 9.4 percent of votes, down from last year’s 14.5 percent, according to a recent poll by the National Institute for Strategic Studies. The situation will be even worse if Self-Defense runs independently, like its members said they would.
Analysts said the only potential gain for the president would be the removal of Yulia Tymoshenko, his former ally, from the prime minister’s job – and thus from the limelight, hoping to curb her growing popularity. “Yushchenko is afraid of Tymoshenko as a serious competitor in the presidential elections,” said Oles Doniy, a member of Yushchenko’s bloc.
The president’s strategy is to install a premier who does not want to run for president after the new parliament is elected, said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst.
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have an ongoing personal conflict that has resulted in the collapse of the coalition of their political forces, as well as public attacks and accusations. Yushchenko accused Tymoshenko of treason in September, while she said this week that he has been evading her phone calls, even from the so-called “hotline.” She also sneered at a nasty joke by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that Yushchenko acted like “a pickpocket” when he flew a plane reserved for Tymoshenko.
Tymoshenko teamed up with the oppositional Party of Regions and Communists in September to pass laws curbing presidential powers and simplifying the impeachment process. She backtracked this week by supporting Yushchenko’s vetos of some of the laws. However the president is afraid the premier might change her mind again, according to experts.
“Yushchenko doesn’t trust Tymoshenko and is afraid that [her bloc] BYuT will vote again for laws reducing his power,” said Fesenko. He said snap elections will guarantee that this law won’t be restored – at least for a while.
A snap election would most likely take place in December, on the Sunday following 60 days from parliament’s official dissolution. The front-runner, Party of Regions, would receive 22.3 percent of votes, Tymoshenko’s BYuT – 18.1 percent, Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc – 7.1 percent and some 6.1 percent would support the Communists, according to a poll conducted on Sept. 25-28 by the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
