If the latest polls can be believed, Kyiv Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko can expect to stay in power for another four years
If the latest polls can be believed, Kyiv Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko can expect to stay in power for another four years; however, the overcrowded city council looks set to undergo a thorough reshuffling.
The March 26 local elections are scheduled for the same day as the country’s parliamentary elections, with the same few parties figuring prominently in recent voter surveys.
According to three different public opinion polls, Omelchenko, 67, leads among all the mayoral candidates, with voter support varying from 22 to 30 percent.
However, a public opinion poll conducted jointly by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF) and the Ukrainian Sociology Service (USS), puts Omelchenko’s Unity Party well behind the bloc of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the city council race.
DIF and USS say Tymoshenko will receive up to 38 of the council’s 120 seats. Next comes the pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc with around 20 seats and Party of the Regions, headed by former presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych, at about 16.
Altogether, only eight out of the 59 parties registered in the race are expected to get on to the capital’s municipal body.
A few of the wildcards include the bloc of national lawmaker Leonid Chernovetsky, a fierce opponent of Omelchenko; the bloc of parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn; the Socialists; and the anti-presidential Ne Tak, which includes former mayoral candidate Hryhoriy Surkis.
Polls indicate that Omelchenko’s Unity party, which currently has about 15 seats on the council, will not be represented at all after March 26.
Another party not expected to make it on to the city council is the European Capital party, headed by Kyiv real estate developer Lev Partskhaladze.
Partskhaladze is co-owner of 21 Century, a large real estate development company which recently raised a landmark $140 million through an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange’s Alternative Investment Market.
Surveys by DIF/USS and another well-known polling service called Inmind show that European Capital, whose banners are widely displayed in Kyiv’s downtown area, enjoys less than one percent of support of the city’s residents.
Overall, analysts say that Kyiv remains an ‘Orange’ city, which is why Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko, the leaders of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, have such high support in the capital.
“Tymoshenko is quite a popular politician in Kyiv,” said Volodymyr Paniotto, the head of Inmind.
“Her rating would be even higher if she did not make such radical moves,” he added.
Omelchenko has had the a large degree of influence on the council in recent years, while Unity had a strong presence. Tymoshenko will likely gobble up a lot of votes in Kyiv from Yednist and other parties.
City council representatives are notorious for their influence in decisions involving issuance of land plots and granting approval to lucrative real estate projects. If Yednist and European Capital fail to slip into the council, they are likely to loose influence in such decision making processes, which may influence the success of their business ventures.
Another key perk city councilmen benefit from is immunity from prosecution, recently by a controversial parliament bill which was signed into law by President Yushchenko. The president, has tried to wash his hands of the bill, calling for it to be repealed.
Mayor’s race
The only close competitor to Omelchenko in the mayor’s race is retired world boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko, who polls give up to 20 percent of voter support. Klitschko, who is simultaneously running for the national parliament, is widely considered to be a prot?g? of Omelchenko, himself three years passed the mandatory retirement age for state employees. The rule does not, however, apply to elected officials.
Omelchenko foe Chernovetsky currently garners no more than 15% of voter support.
Omelchenko, who has been mayor since 1996, is running as an independent, and at the start of the campaign received offers of support from leading national parties. The mayor was supportive of the Orange Revolution, but was initially offered endorsements by parties like Yanukovych’s Regions of Ukraine.
Pollsters say the incumbent rating has not even been damaged by the capital’s recent housing scandal, in which 1500 apartment buyers were bilked out of around $100 million by a company called Elite Center. This time around, Omelchenko faces 41 opponents, while every seat of the city council has 17 contenders.
