The situation with the implementation of the Ukrainian national budget would continue worsening in 2009 in the light of a jump in the state debt, according to the former finance minister and the head of the fund for reform support, Viktor Pinzenyk.
“The situation in the budget sphere threatens rather serious
hardship and troubles,” he said at a conference organized by the
American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine on Tuesday.
Pinzenyk said that in Q1, 2009 the budget’s expenditure were 8% less
year-over-year, in Q2, 2009 they were 19% less and in Q3, 2009 they
were 30% less.
“The budget would not receive UAH 40-45 billion [at late 2009]…
The country would face the budget deficit that it has not seen since
1992,” the economist said.
Commenting the situation, he said that the national budget for 2009
has a projected deficit of UAH 31 billion, although the size of the
real budget gap become clear if UAH 45 billion were added to the sum,
which includes fund that would be sent to additional capitalization of
banks, a lack of revenues, the deficit of the Pension Fund and the
National JSC Naftogaz Ukrainy’s need in funds. He said that as of late
2009 the size of the state debt could exceed one third of GDP.
“We reach UAH 152 billion [of the deficit],” he said.
Pinzenyk said that similar problems would be seen in 2010: the
budget revenues target was overstated by UAH 58 billion, and the real
budget deficit is seen at over 15% of GDP.
The financier said that the credits from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) promotes the settling of the situation, although in the
future the budget financing could switch to issue-grade sources
“There is an attempt to press on the National Bank of Ukraine to cover the budget deficit,” he said.
The former finance minister also confirmed his GDP fall forecast for
2009 at 15-16%, despite improvements in the comparison base.
He said that the situation in the Ukrainian economy could be seen only if unpopular measure were taken.
