MOSCOW, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Russia sees a risk to Ukraine gas payments tied to January's presidential election that will determine whether relations improve or deteriorate further, the head of Russia's Gazprom said on Saturday.
Tensions between Moscow and Kiev over gas payments and
storage have subsided in the past two months to the relief of
the rest of Europe, which suffered a two-week halt to a fifth of
its gas supplies in January after a row between the two.
Ukraine is transit route for the bulk of Russia’s gas
exports.
“There is a risk. In mid-January there will be an election
and payment for January supplies is due on February 7,” Alexei
Miller, the head of Russia’s gas export monopoly Gazprom, told
the Valdai discussion group of Russia experts.
“When I meet with colleagues from (Ukraine state energy
firm) Naftogaz Ukraine and I ask them what will happen in 2010
they tell me: we simply don’t know,” Miller added.
Kremlin aide Arkady Dvorkovich said Russia wanted political
stability in its neighbour, where political paralysis has
hammered the currency and raised a threat of default on some
debts.
“Russia does not need a weak Ukraine. Russia needs a strong
Ukraine as a partner. A strong, politically stable Ukraine is
better than a weak Ukraine that creates a political and economic
crisis for us,” he said.
“The risks in Ukraine are like those in Russia in the 1990s.
They cannot be calculated.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said last week the
country had stored enough gas to ensure smooth supplies to
Europe this winter.
Tymoshenko, the most popular Ukrainian politician in office,
wants to avoid a new gas row with Russia in the run-up to a
presidential election on Jan. 17, in which she has said she will
run.
Earlier this month she clinched a deal with her Russian
counterpart Vladimir Putin, who allowed Ukraine to import much
less gas than previously agreed, saving Ukraine’s strained
economy from potential big fines. [ID:nL1716728]
Tymoshenko’s warmer ties with Russia over recent months have
prompted speculation that Moscow may be backing her in the
election to gain influence over the former Soviet republic.
Gazprom, which supplies one quarter of Europe’s gas, has
already paid transit fees to Ukraine in advance until the first
quarter of 2010.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered Gazprom last week
to stop advance payments, a clear signal Russia wants to know
first who will lead Ukraine.
Miller added that until January he anticipated no problems.
“I think there will be no problems through December. Today
we have very good relations with Ukraine regarding gas because
Ukraine is fulfilling its contractual obligations regarding
payments and transit,” he said.
“Ukraine has financial resources, gold and forex reserves
and IMF funding and the scope of their financing enables them to
pay to the end of 2009,” he said.
I hope there will be no catastrophe in the winter. If
everything goes as it had in the past two months we will be
happy,” Miller said.
(additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov)
