Just 23 percent of Ukrainians expect the upcoming parliamentary elections to improve their nation's lot, and a paltry 29 percent think fraud will not affect the outcome of the March 29 vote, according to a new study released yesterday.
The survey, conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Fund jointly with the polling firm Socis-Gallup, questioned 1,800 people across Ukraine and compared the results to those from a similar study carried out before the 1994 election.
The comparison showed that voters' expectations, never great to begin with, have plumbed new depths since the last election produced a divided legislature that has spent its term in trench warfare with the government. 'There wasn't much optimism in 1994, but by now it has decreased seriously,' said Democratic Initiatives Fund analyst Iryna Bekeshkina.
The proportion of respondents who expect the elections to improve the situation in Ukraine has shrunk from 32 percent in 1994 to 23 percent this year, and only 8 percent of the respondents – half the 1994 total – are convinced that their vote will make a difference. Another 29 percent said it is possible that their participation might have 'some' effect. The comparable figure in 1994 was 38 percent. Serhy Odarych, director of Ukrainska Perspektyva think tank, said such numbers are to be expected. 'I think they are very logical,' he said. 'What else can you expect in a country where corruption in the government is growing and the population is shrinking at the same rate as it would during a war?'
Kyiv passersby shared his fatalism yesterday. 'People of my generation have seen several election campaigns, but they have changed nothing,' said a 33-year-old manager of a private company who did not want to give his name.
'I don't expect anything from a new Parliament,' chimed in Dmytro Begeka, a 22-year-old student. 'I expect nothing to change.'
Forty-four percent of those polled by the Democratic Initiatives Fund and Socis-Gallup said they were certain to go to the polls, and another 20 percent described themselves as likely voters.
But most of those cited their civic duty or force of habit – just 15 percent of the probable voters were motivated by the desire to support a specific candidate or party. By contrast, 38 percent of those expecting to stay home named lack of faith in all politicians as their primary reason. 'Almost all of them are involved in commercial activity, and are in Parliament just to get themselves some privileges,' said the commercial manager.
Another 32 percent said the election is useless because it won't produce change.
The new study showed that older voters are likelier to come to the polls than young Ukrainians. That boosted the share of the vote predicted for the Communists, who have the loyalty of 17 percent of the electorate – three times the figure registered by the second-place Rukh, a moderate nationalist party.
Few Ukrainians, however, expect the election results to accurately reflect the preferences of their countrymen. Of those polled in the latest survey, 32 percent said it is possible that the tally will be falsified, and another 21 percent are convinced that the count will not be honest. The comparable totals in 1994 were 27 percent and 12 percent respectively.
Anatoly Koltsov, a 60-year-old retiree who continues to teach at a Kyiv school, was more optimistic. 'I believe in objectivity of the coming election – because a lot of parties and a lot of observers will be watching,' he said. But Koltsov, too, is unsure how he will cast his ballot. 'I do not have any idea what all these parties are for,' he said. He hoped to read up in the coming weeks in order to choose among the 30 parties on the ballot. Many Ukrainian parties have put celebrities and well-known politicians at the top of their slates to attract confused voters. But Odarych said the presence on the ballot of politicians tainted by scandal may have helped to alienate the electorate.
'How can you demand that people trust them?' he said.
