The government led by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko appeared to be hanging by a thread after two lawmakers defected from the pro-Western governing coalition.
The government led by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko appeared to be hanging by a thread after two lawmakers defected from the pro-Western governing coalition. The defections paralyzed the coalition’s backing in parliament, where it lost the hairline two-seat majority Tymoshenko had since she took over as premier in December.
The coalition, composed of Tymoshenko’s political bloc and the largely propresidential Our Ukraine grouping, continues to exist de jure, analysts said. According to the constitution, coalitions are formed by factions, not lawmakers. However, it is visibly weakened, and now lacks a majority needed to approve any decisions. As a result, the prospects are high for Ukrainian politics to sink back into a stalemate, or deeper into political paralysis that would lead to either formation of a new coalition or early elections.
One of the defecting lawmakers, Yuriy But, a former Russian citizen who served in Vladimir Putin’s administration briefly but joined parliament on the Our Ukraine ticket after becoming a Ukrainian citizen in 2005, defended his decision. He said the move was necessary to end an escalating rivalry between Tymoshenko, and President Viktor Yushchenko. Both erstwhile Orange Revolution allies have clashed in recent months on a range of issues, including billiondollar privatization plans, and government handling of surging inflation. Their spat is expected to escalate further as the 2010 presidential contest nears.
“I can’t continue to work in the framework of a union that doesn’t stick to its promises [to voters] and stopped serving as a support base for President Viktor Yushchenko,” But said, referring to Tymoshenko’s believed aim to challenge Yushchenko for the presidential seat.
Ihor Rybakov, the other defector and a member of Tymoshenko’s bloc, referred to corrupt dealings in the highest echelons of government, and argued his defection would help bring stability to Ukraine.
Some coalition members and political observers pointed the blame on Yushchenko’s right hand man, Viktor Baloha, head of the presidential administration. They claim the defections were orchestrated by Baloha, who has led much of the criticism directed at Tymoshenko’s government.
Baloha’s alleged strategy, according to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, is simple: paralyze the coalition, opening the door for fresh coalition talks with other parties, including the Moscowleaning Regions party led by expremier Viktor Yanukovych.
“Baloha and some of the Our Ukraine representatives have common business interests with the Regions party and are interested in uniting into a coalition” that would sideline Tymoshenko, said Anatoliy Semynoha, a lawmaker in the premier’s political bloc.
In recent days, Yanukovych’s Regions party argued that the two defections equate to the collapse of the coalition. But experts, coalition members and even Yushchenko himself held back, insisting the coalition was still legally intact.
Some political insiders claimed the coalition could squeeze votes through parliament in the near term by mustering support from other parties, such as the bloc of Volodymyr Lytvyn. Some even pointed to Lytvyn, a senior politician who once headed Ukraine’s presidential administration under Leonid Kuchma, as a possible new partner for a strengthened coalition.
Political observers cite three scenarios as likely outcomes of the most recent political dustup in Kyiv.
In a stalemate scenario, Tymoshenko’s government could hold up, but with severely limited ability to pass reforms and fulfill populist promises that would boost voter support.
If the coalition does collapse fully, a new powersharing pact could be formed between Yanukovych’s Regions party, and a portion of the presidentialloyal Our Ukraine grouping.
A repeat of last fall’s snap parliament election is also a possibility.
Yet political analysts question whether Ukraine’s three leading politicians would be willing to roll the dice in an early vote considering the unpredictable results in a snap poll held last month in Kyiv’s city council.
Recent political polls indicate that voters have tuned out Kyiv’s relentless political rivalries. Turnout could be low as in the Kyiv mayoral and city council elections. Like the Kyiv vote, parties backing the three main leaders could lose ground to smaller parties and fresh political figures.
Political analyst Kost Bondarenko predicted that voter turnout would be less than 50 percent in a snap election, and smaller parties would sneak in grabbing voter support from the three leaders.
The dominant political forces in Ukraine are not interested in preterm elections as they lose voter support, Semynoha added.
Victor Chumak, a political analyst at the Kyivbased International Centre for Policy Studies, said Yushchenko is likely more inclined to seek a powersharing agreement with Yanukovych. Both would ally themselves against Tymoshenko, whose chances in the 2010 presidential poll are seen as strongest.
Such an alliance would be a sweetbutsour victory for Yushchenko. While sidelining Tymoshenko, the return of Yanukovych’s Moscowfriendly Regions to power would derail Yushchenko’s Western integration initiatives, such as aims for Kyiv to join the NATO security alliance.
For Yushchenko, mustering support of political allies to join an alliance with Yanukovych could prove difficult, according to Semynoha.
“The majority of lawmakers in Our Ukraine want to preserve the democratic forces coalition with the Tymoshenko Bloc and isn’t going to change its principles,” Semynoha said, referring to the alliance between both groups. The alliance has been shaky since the Orange Revolution of 2004, which propelled Yushchenko to the presidency against a fraud marred vote in favor of Yanukovych.
The loosely packed Our Ukraine bloc consists of more than a halfdozen parties. Some have remained proYushchenko; others have in recent months become increasingly critical of the president, signaling a possible future alliance with Tymoshenko.
