The U.S. secretary of state arrives as both America and Ukraine try to patch up relations with Russia. Clinton's visit also comes amid questions about whether President Viktor Yanukovych really wants Ukraine to stay on a democratic course and how much the United States really cares about what happens in the nation.
No matter how pretty of a face anyone tries to put on it, Ukraine is losing its status as a key geopolitical battleground between Russia and the West, and is moving towards the periphery of U.S. foreign policy. A one-day trip by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on July 2 is not going to change this reality.
“There is not really an articulated policy toward Ukraine.”
– Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William B. Taylor Jr.
Clinton’s boss, U.S. President Barack Obama, wants Russian help on major American security challenges – the protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in helping to keep Iran free of nuclear weapons. Many think this strategic imperative is forcing Ukraine to the sidelines.
“There is not really an articulated policy toward Ukraine,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William B. Taylor Jr., who served from 2006-2009. “Obama has a general sense of who and what Ukraine is. He knows the strategic importance of Ukraine. The Obama admininistration treats Russia on its own, treats Ukraine on its own.”
Ukraine was once on “the priority list” of both former U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The Clinton notion back then was that Ukraine would be a cornerstone of European security and stability on the new eastern frontiers of NATO. For Bush Jr., Ukraine became a success story in promoting global democracy and part of his Kremlin-deterrent package.
“Neither of these ideas fit Obama’s foreign policy strategy,” said Serhiy Kudelia, assistant professor of political science at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. “Stability on NATO’s eastern frontier is being guaranteed primarily through a ‘reset’ in U.S.-Russian relations. Obama also distanced himself from Bush’s democracy promotion agenda, viewed as a mere pretext for U.S. intervention in the countries’ internal affairs around the world.”
Many pro-Western Ukrainians feel the chill.
“With the reset of Ukraine-Russia and the U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine is not any more a mechanism for the United States to restrain Russia.”
– Oleh Voloshyn, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman.
“The Ukrainians I’m speaking with are kind of assuming that the U.S. has given up on Ukraine,” said Nadia Diuk, vice president of the U.S.-based National Endowment of Democracy. “They don’t see strong moral or financial support. Many here were used to the former U.S. administration’s loud stance on “freedom.”
But there is a positive side to not being a bargaining chip between the Russian and American superpowers.
“With the reset of Ukraine-Russia and the U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine is not any more a mechanism for the United States to restrain Russia,” said Oleh Voloshyn, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman. “Ukraine also does not have to hide under the U.S. umbrella every time Russia poses a challenge to Ukraine. It is time to concentrate our relations on economics, humanitarian cooperation, trade and business, etc.”
U.S. President Barack Obama holds a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, at the Washington Convention Center as part of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C, on April 12. (AFP)
Unfulfilled potential
America’s role in Ukraine’s foreign trade has never been high – with an estimated $1.5 billion in trade turnover, a paltry sum in the grand scheme of global investment.
“From the business point of view, it is refreshing to have some order now [with the President Viktor Yanukovych administration].”
– Reno Domenico, head of Democrats Abroad.
“One of the biggest disappointments was the inability to accomplish business goals we planned on to reach in Ukraine. From the business point of view, it is refreshing to have some order now [with the President Viktor Yanukovych administration],” said Reno Domenico, head of Democrats Abroad, Ukraine and President of Sterling Business School.
American businesses, however, are still waiting for action. “The business community remains cautiously optimistic that the talk of reform will materialize into concrete actions and steps,” said Jorge Zukoski, head of the Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.
One positive signal is the return of the U.S. Overseas Private Investment (OPIC) to Ukraine, aimed to encourage private investment by providing risk insurance. “OPIC being back and active in the market sends a clear signal that Ukraine is in fact open for business,” Zukoski said.
Many doubt whether Ukraine and the United States – with so much language, culture and geography dividing them – can truly become close.
“Government can plan on intensifying cooperation as much as it wants,” Kudelia of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy said. “However, Ukraine is not even in the second or third tier countries for the United States. Clinton’s visit is a mere act of politeness.”
Andry Ignatov, deputy director for development at the Institute of World Policy, expects the Ukrainian government to help in anti-terrorism efforts and participate in military exercises with the United States and other nations.
And, of course, Ignatov said Ukraine is likely to be in the middle of U.S.-Russia relations, trying to strike a middle course, as always. “Ukraine also will try and balance between U.S. and Russian energy projects in gas transportation and nuclear energy, aiming at exploiting the capacities of both,” Ignatov said.
Kyiv Post staff writer Nataliya Bugayova can be reached at [email protected]. Staff writer Mark Rachkevych contributed to this report.
