Just months ago, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma was riding a wave of political and economic victories; today, he faces a crisis that could throw Ukraine into chaos, rolling back whatever stability the country has achieved since the Soviet collapse
y the country has achieved since the Soviet collapse.
Accused in the disappearance of a critical journalist who is presumed dead, Kuchma is the target of growing protests from a broad-based group calling for his ouster.
“The finale of what is happening now will be the replacement of the regime and the president,” said Socialist Party head Oleksandr Moroz, a longtime opponent of Kuchma. “That will happen within months.”
The months-old protests mark the most serious challenge yet to Kuchma, 62, who was first elected in 1994 and crushed a Communist to win a second five-year term in 1999.
Kuchma’s supportive parliamentary majority has crumbled, public figures and politicians have formed a so-called National Salvation Forum to oust him, and protesters have set up a tent camp in the heart of the capital.
The crisis – and how Kuchma handles it – also loom large as signposts for the future of Ukraine, a nation of nearly 50 million people that stands between Russia and the rest of Europe.
A chaotic denouement would be a blow to the United States, which has supported Ukraine with millions of dollars and courted its military in an effort to create a buffer against Russia’s regional ambitions.
The European Union and the United States have expressed concern over media freedoms in Ukraine, and Western leaders have demanded a full and independent investigation of the Heorhiy Gongadze case.
Some political analysts say Kuchma can still dig himself out of his hole. But how did it get so deep so fast?
Kuchma’s critics say Ukraine’s leadership was so rife with corruption that one final straw could bring it tumbling down. Then came the disappearance of journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, the discovery of a decapitated body believed to be his, and a set of audio tapes that allegedly document Kuchma giving instructions to get rid of the reporter.
Gongadze disappeared in September and the body was found in November, amid accusations from a former Kuchma bodyguard who fled the country. Maj. Mykola Melnichenko said he had planted a tape recorder under a couch in Kuchma’s office, allegedly documenting the president and top aides fuming in obscene language about Gongadze and discussing how to silence him.
“He should be deported to Georgia … and thrown out there,” roars a voice resembling Kuchma’s. “The Chechens should kidnap him and take him … to Chechnya and ask for ransom.”
Kuchma has adamantly denied having anything to do with Gongadze’s disappearance, and prosecutors have said the tapes cannot be deemed authentic.
However, Kuchma said this week that he was almost certainly bugged, and last week he fired the heads of two top security officials – actions opposition leaders say are further evidence that the tapes are genuine.
Opposition parties from across Ukraine’s sharply divided political spectrum – from socialists on the left to ultranationalists on the right – have seized on scattered protests over the Gongadze case, which culminated in a large rally in Kiev this month.
But the opposition to Kuchma goes beyond Gongadze. His face, portrayed in black silhouette on the protesters’ placards, seems to mask a tangle of contradictory interests.
There are hard-liners critical of market reforms, nationalists long opposed to Kuchma over his close ties with Russia, legislators who fear losing power, and rank-and-file Ukrainians fed up with years of corruption and economic struggle.
Some analysts say the protesters represent a fraction of the nation’s population, and that indifference among millions of Ukrainians busy making ends meet means Kuchma won’t be kicked out by popular demand.
“The situation in Ukraine is very far from a revolutionary one and actions of this type, we think, are doomed,” said a group of experts from the independent Kiev Center of Political Studies, led by Mykhailo Pohrebynskyi.
But analysts warn that actions by the authorities – like the recent arrest of Julia Tymoshenko, an opposition leader suspected of corruption – may could aggravate the crisis.
The situation could deteriorate further if Kuchma and the opposition cannot compromise, said Mykola Tomenko of the independent Politics Institute.
There have been few signs of compromise from either side. Kuchma vowed Friday his opponents would never come to power, and has portrayed himself as the defender of the nation against destructive forces.“Today is a moment of truth for Ukraine,” he said last week. “Either the political elite will be able to solve this conflict in the framework of the Constitution and law, or we’ll go to some unforeseen scenario which will not bring Ukraine anything but calamity and sorrow.”
