Changes could retain power for Kuchma past the fall, and get him immunity
aine’s government have resurfaced as President Leonid Kuchma’s allies launched what appears to be an attempt to allow him to retain significant power beyond the end of his term this fall, in order to avoid possible legal prosecution.
Parliament on June 23 passed on first reading a bill which would shift executive powers from the president to the prime minister before the October 31 presidential elections, which opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko is favored to win. If successful, the changes could set the stage for Kuchma, or a close ally, to try to get elected prime minister by a parliament that largely supports him. As prime minister, Kuchma or his ally would exercise control over prosecutors, with parliamentary approval.
The bill received 276 yes votes, well over the 226 required. Most votes came from deputies belonging to the Rada’s pro-presidential majority, while oppositionist members from Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine bloc and Yulia Tymoshenko’s eponymous bloc unsuccessfully tried to block the podium to sabotage the voting process.
Deputies from the Socialist and Communist parties voted in favor of the bill, which is numbered 4180.
Bill 4180 is virtually identical to Bill 4105, which fell 11 votes short of passing final reading on April 8. Both bills envision making the presidency a largely symbolic position and shifting its powers to a prime minister elected by parliament.
The existing constitution requires a minimum of 301 votes to adopt constitutional changes in a final reading before the next parliamentary session, allowing the Rada to vote on the bill in the fall, just ahead of the presidential elections.
Yushchenko labeled Bill 4180 an attempt by Kuchma, who was first elected as president in 1994, to remain in power. Yushchenko also said the Rada had no right to vote on this bill, as Ukraine’s Constitutional Court ruled it identical to 4105, which the Rada failed to pass this April. Ukraine’s constitution prevents Parliament from voting on identical constitutional changes more than once a year. Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn had said following the failure of the April 8 vote that he would not allow identical reform motions to be floored in the Rada.
Sure to raise concerns
Passage of the bill is destined to raise concerns in the United States and the European Union, both of which have urged Ukraine to postpone constitutional changes until after the presidential elections.
Ukrainian political analyst Kost Bondarenko said passage of the bill awards Kuchma, who will lack immunity for alleged wrongdoings during his presidency, a useful political card and leaves him room to secure himself new power.
“It essentially gives Kuchma a lever ahead of the elections which he can use to manipulate the political scene,” Bondarenko said. “If Kuchma decides to run for a third term as a candidate in the elections, he will stall passage of this constitutional reform project.
“If he does not run for a third term, he will push to pass this bill ahead of the elections,” which would give him a chance to be appointed prime minister, Bondarenko added.
Bondarenko also said mustering the 300 votes required to pass the bill right before the October elections could easily be achieved by “buying” deputies, pressuring them, or striking deals with them.
Kuchma heavily distrusted
Pre-election polls have not included Kuchma as a presidential candidate, but results of a recent poll conducted by Kyiv’s Democratic Initiatives Foundation released June 18 show that public support for the president is very low. More than 55.5 percent of the population completely distrust him and only 10 percent completely trust him. By comparison, 40 and 41 percent of the population show complete distrust of Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, respectively. Of those polled, 24.3 percent expressed complete trust in Yushchenko and 15 percent exhibited complete trust in Yanukovych.
The same poll shows that Yushchenko would get 27 percent of the vote if elections were held this June; Yanukovych would trail with 18 percent support.
Bondarenko described Presidential Administration Chief Viktor Medvedchuk and deputies who voted for the bill as “second rate characters in a game that’s being played for the sole interest of Kuchma, who has no protective guarantees in place if he leaves office.”
Family matters
He said passage of a law which would award Kuchma alone immunity from prosecution after he leaves office is insufficient, as it would leave vulnerable family members of his who control major business interests.
One such family member is deputy and tycoon Viktor Pinchuk, who is married to Kuchma’s daughter Olena Franchuk. Another is his brother-in-law Yury Tumanov, a shareholder in and executive at mobile phone operator Kyivstar GSM. Another relative of concern is deputy Ihor Franchuk, top executive at state oil and gas company Chornomornaftogaz. Franchuk is Kuchma’s daughter’s first husband.
Kuchma’s best available option for avoiding possible prosecution is “not to lose control of the system,” Bondarenko said.
