Former allies from last winter’s Orange Revolution, now political foes, are increasingly calling for reunification in the run up to the March 2006 parliamentary elections
Former allies from last winter’s Orange Revolution, now political foes, are increasingly calling for reunification in the run up to the March 2006 parliamentary elections. Political analysts, however, predict that a coalition will not be formed until all the votes are counted.
In an official statement, People’s Party Our Ukraine, which is loyal to President Viktor Yushchenko, called on the Socialist Party of Ukraine, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Pora-Reforms & Order group and the bloc of speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn to run together against political forces once allied with former President Leonid Kuchma.
According to the conditions of a coalition project put forward by the pro-Yushchenko bloc, Premier Yuriy Yekhanurov, who replaced Tymoshenko in September, would remain in his post before and after the March elections. Earlier this month, the Tymoshenko and Lytvyn blocs took part in a no-confidence vote against the Yekhanurov government, criticizing it for the result of the gas deal inked Jan. 4 with Russia.
Yushchenko’s team wants that vote reversed and former Orange allies to reconfirm Yekhanurov after voters go to the polls Mar. 26. In line with changes recently introduced to Ukraine’s constitution, the parliament elected in 2006, not the president, will decide who will be prime minister. Adding to the confusion, parliament’s refusal to appoint a full board of constitutional judges has prevented a ruling to clarify whether its vote to oust the government was legal or not.
Political analysts say the coalition-building attempts will not pan out until after the elections.
Mykhailo Pohrebinsky, the director of the Center for Political and Conflict Research, said plans for a revived “Orange” coalition before the elections “is a good intention but it is not going to happen,” as long as Our Ukraine insists on keeping Yekhanurov as premier.
Other parties are not going to accept this condition, he added.
“Our Ukraine understands this but is only using the coalition idea as part of their political strategy,” Pohrebinsky said, adding that they want to look like a party seeking a constructive compromise.
“They want to preserve the status quo; they realize they are not going to win the elections on their own,” he said.
Political spin doctors say that former Orange coalition forces, such as Yulia Tymoshenko, are also publicly seeking reunification for much the same reasons, while balking at it when the discussions come to the negotiation table.
Political strategist Dmytro Vydrin, who’s running on the Tymoshenko bloc ticket, said a coalition is theoretically possible given that Tymoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s teams share similar ideology and goals, but the staff of the next government has to be agreed beforehand.
“Yushchenko should get rid of people from his circle who have been involved in and accused of corruption,” Vydrin said. “Without an agreement on who is in the government, a coalition is improbable.”
Our Ukraine’s insistence that Yekhanurov remain as prime minister appears unacceptable to Tymoshenko, who has publicly expressed her desire to return as premier after the elections.
The Our Ukraine bloc says in its compromise proposal that it expects an answer from its former allies by Feb. 2.
The next session of the current parliament is scheduled for Feb. 7.
It remains to be seen how the issue will be resolved and who will have control in the new parliament. Recent polls indicate that Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko each have about 15 percent voter support; Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions has as much as 30 percent support according to some polls. Polls also show that the Socialists have six percent support, fueling speculation that old Orange Revolution allies could form a majority government after the elections.
Another scenario envisions either Our Ukraine or Tymoshenko aligning with Yanukovych’s Regions party to form a majority.
If the Rada doesn’t form a coalition within 30 days, Yushchenko can dismiss parliament.
Kost Bondarenko, director of the Institute for National Strategy, said all the bargaining hinges on the allocation of top posts in the next government and parliament.Bondarenko doesn’t exclude the possibility that the new parliament may cancel its decision to oust the government, but says that the Yekhanurov team is likely to be reshuffled if kept in place. Recent calls by Yushchenko for a referendum to reverse political reforms that shift powers from the president to the parliament are likely to further complicate negotiations.
