Recent public opinion polls show that the heightened political crisis has dented the popularity of all major political parties and leaders.
A demand for fresh new faces is on the rise.
With all the mayhem, it is no surprise that a growing number of Ukrainians want to see new parties and leaders in government, and less bickering between those in power.
“People are disillusioned with the monster parties” and want to see “fresh” parties as well as political leaders, said Iryna Bekeshkina, head of Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Kyiv-based think tank.
According to a mid-September poll by the Sofia Center for Sociological Studies, 77.5 percent of Ukrainians think that the country’s affairs are moving in the wrong direction.
Three recent polls show that the number of people who would vote “against all” if elections were to be held soon has increased since the 2007 parliamentary elections. Less than three percent voted against all political forces then, while now the figure is between five and 16 percent, depending on the poll.
The polls show that while Ukraine’s largest political forces still appeal to a combined majority of voters, the parties and blocs have lost many potential voters since last September. In 2007 the Party of Regions snagged 34.4 percent, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc received 30.7 percent and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine grouping scored 14.2 percent.
According to an early September poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 24 percent of potential voters support Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc, another 23 percent will vote for the Regions and only 3.8 percent still have faith in President Victor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine.
Parties aside, key political figures have also lost public support. According to Sofia, 61 percent of voters are ready to vote “no confidence” in Yushchenko, while 56.5 percent negatively perceive the activities of Tymoshenko.
At the same time, the polls show a growing demand for new politicians and parties. For example, if parliamentary elections where held in September, a political force led by acting Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk would score 3.5 percent, according to a National Institute of Strategic Research poll. That’s just enough for what would be a newly formed party led by Yatsenyuk to pass the three percent qualifying barrier for seats in parliament.
Yatsenyuk formally resigned as speaker after the BYuT-Our Ukraine grouping coalition collapsed, but continues to hold the post, as parliament has not voted for a new speaker. After tendering his resignation, Yatsenyuk promptly announced he will lead a new political project.
“This is not the project of Arseniy Yatsenyuk alone, this is the project of an idea, the idea of a strong and democratic state,” Yatsenyuk told Inter channel on Sept. 21.
The acting speaker discounted rumors that the new political project will be financed by Ukraine’s richest individual, Rinat Akhmetov. He also denied rumors that his party would be led jointly with National Security and Defense Council Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova, an Akhmetov ally who was expelled from the Regions for her pro-NATO position.
Yatsenyuk’s new political project is also rumored to include a former Yushchenko ally and defense minister, Anatoliy Hrytsenko. According to Sofia, 2.5 percent of voters would support a political force led by Hrytsenko.
The potential electorate of a Yatsenyuk party is middle class, and supports right-centrist ideology. It would grab voters from the traditional Tymoshenko bloc and Yushchenko electorate, Bekeshkina added.
Experts say any new political movement will only succeed if it is led by bright and popular leaders. “Our people won’t vote for a party program, they seek a leader,” Bekeshkina said.
“The danger to democracy [in this trend] is that disappointed people, who have spent a long time living in chaos, will support any authoritarian leader promising to restore order,” Bekeshkina added.
Further evidence of disappointment can be found in the popular support for a coalition between BYuT and the Regions, Bekeshkina said. Such sentiment is a sign that if a new strong leader doesn’t spring up, voters would at least seek constructive cooperation from the largest parties.
Some 31 percent of respondents support the BYuT-Regions coalition, according to the National Institute of Strategy Research. The Sofia poll indicates some 44.6 percent of voters support such an alliance.
Experts say there are other reasons that support for a union between two fierce political opponents – BYuT and Regions – is popular. Firstly, voters simply don’t believe that Our Ukraine and BYuT can function as partners in a stable coalition due Tymoshenko’s and Yushchenko’s presidential ambitions. Secondly, Ukrainians would prefer any coalition over the option of voting in a third parliamentary election in as many years.
Moreover, Sofia’s poll results indicate that half of Ukraine’s citizens feel that snap elections would not change the makeup of parliament.
