Only days ago, the Rada established by the narrowest of margins what was presented as a majority.
With only 230 votes to start with, the majority started losing air after the clumsy arrest of Russian businessman Konstantin Grigorishin. The arrest, which is generally accepted at almost all levels in Kyiv to have been highly politicized, raises a number of troubling questions.
If the raiding party, apparently well-organized, chose to make the arrest while Grigorishin was in the company of a parliament member, it showed open disdain for the parliament. This impression is intensified by allegations that a gun was openly planted on Grigorishin during the arrest procedure.
The other possibility is that the raiding party’s intelligence was so faulty it was unable to identify Grigorishin’s companion as a deputy. That raises questions as to the level of professionalism of those in charge.
Grigorishin claims that two individuals close to Hryhory Surkis were on the scene during the arrest, leading some to suspect that the whole matter has more to do with settling scores in the energy sector than with possession of weapons and cocaine.
One of the results of the bungled Grigorishin arrest is that at least one member of the majority has pulled out completely and four others have suspended their membership.
Factions seek to divide up Cabinet posts
The Presidential Administration’s new strategy seems to amount to throwing down a challenge to the president’s allies in the Rada. They have one month to carve up all the ministries to produce a new government they can agree on. Based on recent experience, the various factions and parties are not likely to agree a distribution of powers. If the Rada cannot reach an agreement, the president will dissolve the government on Nov. 21 and do the job the old way.
While it is not being stated publicly, it is being whispered in the backrooms that the president is insisting the Rada establishes a majority secure enough to guarantee passage of presidential initiatives. In return, the president is offering to give the majority a relatively free hand in choosing ministers. No matter how a new government is chosen, its tenure is bound to be short making it less attractive than might have been the case otherwise.
Another peculiarity of this situation is that, no matter who brings the government down and who forms the new one, Anatoly Kinakh stands a fair chance of surviving as prime minister.
This is such a novel idea that it is hard to evaluate. Kinakh likes the idea of staying on and has been credited with doing a better than average job under difficult circumstances. However, his confidence in the future is best indicated by the fact that he is technically still incumbent in his old position at the Association of Entrepreneurs and Industrialists.
Pyskun’s perambulations
Prosecutor General Syvatoslav Pyskun returned from his first Washington trip full of stories of his great success in convincing U.S. authorities that Ukraine could not possibly have sold Kolchuga radars to Iraq.
However, sources in the U.S. administration and Congress suggest that if Pyskun really believes what he told a post-trip news conference in Kyiv, he must have been engaging in a bit of self-hypnosis.
The U.S. and British experts who investigated the Kolchuga issue on the ground in Ukraine are now back in London looking at all the data they gathered and drawing up a final report.
Based on statements coming from members of Congress, many in the House and the Senate have already reached strongly negative conclusions on the issue.
The Congress decided to put off the fiscal year 2003 U.S. budget until after the congressional elections on Nov. 5. However, whatever conclusions the investigators reach, the results are likely to have a considerable impact on foreign aid for Ukraine. We are likely to know those answers no earlier than Nov. 15.
As for Pyskun’s planned side trip to the West Indian islands of Antigua and Barbuda to secure return of the $100 million plus allegedly secreted there by Pavlo Lazarenko, a parliamentary crisis there made that stop unadvisable. Knowing the Antiguan parliament, though, it is entirely possible that the crisis was about how to carve up the Lazarenko money.
[Got a tidbit you’d like to whisper in The Ear. Send it to [email protected].]
