Ukraine’s eventual hopes for joining the 27-nation European Union inched ahead with the Sept. 9 summit in Paris, France, despite a domestic political crisis that has torn the pro-Western governing coalition.
The nation did not receive any guarantees of eventual membership at the EUUkraine summit, led by President Victor Yushchenko from Ukraine’s side. But the nation did convince Brussels to offer it socalled associate member status, a step up from its current “neighborhood” status.
The new agreement, expected to be signed late next year, envisions free trade agreements and liberalized visa rules to encourage greater travel.
But analysts predict that, if the disorder in Ukrainian politics continues, the West could stick to its cautious approach to Kyiv’s desire for swifter integration.
In addition to possible EU membership, also at stake is Ukraine’s hopes of being accepted into a NATO membership action plan during that alliance’s December summit of foreign ministers.
In a cautious statement at the EU summit, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country holds the rotating presidency, said: “The association agreement neither opens nor closes any route [for Ukraine].”
Looking ahead, Sarkozy offered hope. He said the EU recognized Ukraine as European country that shares the continent’s common history and values.
But in the wake of the RussiaGeorgia war, Ukraine and its Eastern European allies wanted more. Ukraine once again finds itself sandwiched between East and West playing the role of a buffer nation.
Ukraine’s leaders hoped that Russia’s military assault on Georgia, another rare proWestern ally on postSoviet turf, would sway Brussels into speeding up Ukraine’s integration and offering the country additional security guarantees within the framework of the European Security and Defense Policy.
There is concern that Russia, in restoring its domination over aspiring postSoviet neighbors, could expand its control over transit routes vital to the EU’s energy security. Former Soviet bloc countries now in the EU want Brussels to respond swiftly to counter Moscow’s designs, in part by speeding up Ukraine’s integration. But Western European countries remain hesitant to anger Moscow, a key supplier of oil and gas.
In a carefullyworded statement, the EU offered moral support to Kyiv, stressing the country was moving closer to Brussels and signaled to Moscow that territorial integrity must be respected. The association agreement “will provide a solid basis for further convergence between Ukraine and the EU on foreign policy and security issues, including promoting respect for the principles of independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders,” the statement reads.
Yet Brussels stopped short of providing guarantees for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, amid fears Moscow could stir up separatism in Crimea or in the breakaway Transdniester region, after flexing its muscles in Georgia and recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Unable to militarily defend itself against Russia, Ukraine’s president has – in the midst of the Georgia war – stressed the need for his country to join NATO. The conflict presented an opportunity for Yushchenko to boost low public support for NATO membership. He argued that only collective security will provide guarantees. Yet his relentless political squabbling with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, his former ally, could also delay this key foreign policy goal.
EU leaders had hinted several days before the summit they aren’t satisfied with the persistent power struggles in Ukraine. “The internal conflicts do not benefit Ukraine,” said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner at the EU foreign ministers meeting on Sept. 6.
Olexiy Haran, a Ukrainian political analyst, said his nation gave the West a reason to be cautious in its support.
“The political crisis in Ukraine gave European countries an excuse not to recognize Ukraine’s European perspective,” Haran said adding, that chances of Ukraine to be accepted into a NATO membership action plan in December could also be dented by messy domestic politics.
If the current proWest coalition is replaced by a new antipresidential alliance between Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc and the Moscowleaning Party of Regions, then “you can be sure” Ukraine won’t be approved for a NATO membership action plan in December, Haran added.
Despite the political setbacks, business between Ukraine and EU countries has boomed, offering hope of an eventual convergence of fates.
Between 2000 and 2007, bilateral trade more than tripled, and the EU replaced Russia as Ukraine’s largest trading partner. European exports to Ukraine, a vast market of 46 million, skyrocketed nearly fivefold during this period to 24.4 billion euros. Meanwhile, Ukrainian exports to EU countries more than doubled, from 4.8 to 12.4 billion euros.
