Pavlo Lazarenko may be an inconvenient friend, but he is a also an uncomfortable foe. Faced with those two equally unpalatable options, President Leonid Kuchma has opted instead to turn his potential rival into a patient, while temporarily entrusting government to a troubleshooter known for his safe pair of hands.
The only question now is whether Lazarenko's political malady is terminal. And that, say analysts, depends on how much the president fears his bed-ridden subordinate. 'Kuchma should have got rid of Lazarenko long ago, but the decree itself shows that his hand trembled at the last moment,' said Oleksandr Yurchuk, political analyst for the Pidtekst newsletter. Lazarenko's dismissal had been rumored virtually from the date of his appointment amid mounting wage arrears, allegations of corruption and evidence of government inertia. And while Kuchma has publicly lashed out at his premier he has steadfastly refused to move against him. Even when the Popular Democratic Party uniting the post-Soviet nomenklatura finally demanded Lazarenko's ouster three weeks ago, Kuchma demurred. Such patience had strengthened speculation that the two leaders were locked into a pact of mutually assured destruction. 'Lazarenko's political opponents are afraid of him,' said Yuriy Sandul, political section editor of the daily paper Den. 'They are afraid of)his wealth, strong influence in Parliament and in Russia.' Progressive Socialist Party leader Natalya Vitrenko was even more direct, as is her custom. 'Kuchma cannot fire Lazarenko because the latter has a lot of incriminating information against him. So he issued a decree ordering Lazarenko to fall ill,' she said. Vitrenko declined to elaborate. Lazarenko's sudden, handy illness also lets Kuchma avoid an immediate confrontation over his successor with a recalcitrant Parliament dominated by leftist lawmakers. There are few candidates acceptable both to Kuchma and the various factions in the legislature. Even if these could be found, analysts suggest Parliament would be reluctant to assume responsibility for confirming a new prime minister less than a year before parliamentary elections due in March 1998. Under the constitution, however, dismissal of the prime minister is followed by the resignation of the entire Cabinet. This would have left the government and civil service paralyzed for at least several months while Kuchma and the legislature haggled over candidates. Increasingly, though, it became apparent that Lazarenko could please neither Kuchma, nor Parliament deputies, nor Ukraine's friends in the West. His exit came days before key meetings between Kuchma, International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer and U.S. Vice President Albert Gore. 'The economic crisis caused by the Cabinet's inaction became so critical that the president could no longer remain blind to it,' said Vitrenko. 'The allegations against Lazarenko have reached the point when Kuchma was forced to do something about this,' chimed in Yurchuk. An alternative explanation is that the premier's illness was his own idea. 'The whole affair may have been initiated by Lazarenko to escape responsibility for possible rejection of the 1997 budget draft in Parliament and make Kuchma responsible for it,' said Roman Zwarycz, director of the Center for Democratic Reform think tank. 'It could be Lazarenko's game of hardball.' Whatever their assessment of the motives for Lazarenko's not-quite-dismissal, all observers were unanimous in calling Vasyl Durdynets the ideal acting premier in a period of uncertainty. 'Durdynets is the most suitable figure for the appointment. He is fated to play secondary roles,' said Zwarycz, expressing the popular wisdom. 'He is a skillful executive, but is not quite enough of a heavyweight to lead the government.' By using Durdynets as a temporary replacement, Kuchma bought the time he needs to decide Lazarenko's future. The first convenient moment to fire Lazarenko outright will likely come on July 18, when Parliament is scheduled to recess for the summer. 'Parliament will be out of the game when it's time to decide the fate of Lazarenko,' said Sandul. This might allow a new Kuchma nominee who would otherwise face parliamentary opposition a few relatively quiet months to make his case for the job. 'Lazarenko's dismissal is inevitable, because it will make the government healthier,' said Oleksandr Yemets, member of the Constitutional Center faction in Parliament and a former deputy prime minister under Lazarenko. Under Ukrainian law Kuchma will have to wait 45 days to fire Lazarenko unless the latter declares he is well. On the other hand, the constitution does not specify how long the government can be headed by an acting premier. This leaves Lazarenko plenty of time to recover while Kuchma ponders whether that's desirable.
