The compromise seemed like a victory for President Yushchenko, who ordered snap elections by decree.
While World War II veterans in Ukraine celebrated Victory Day, neither the country’s president nor its prime minister could yet claim a victory in their seemingly never-ending battle for executive power.
Less than a week ago, on May 4, European leaders and Ukraine’s financial markets rejoiced at announcements that pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko and his Moscow-friendly enemy, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, had reached a compromise entailing early parliamentary elections.
But congratulations were premature.
The two men’s personal political duel, which has been fought against a faint geopolitical backdrop since the country’s Orange Revolution almost three years ago, is likely to continue into the near future as a backroom war of attrition.
Early parliamentary elections will be held to break the deadlock in the Verkhovna Rada and executive halls of power, both sides announced on Friday, May 4. The compromise seemed like a victory for President Yushchenko, who ordered snap elections by decree when he dismissed the parliament controlled by Yanukovych’s Regions party on April 2.
The problem is that Yanukovych’s coalition, which refused to recognize the legality of the decree for one month, is in no hurry to set a date. And their leftist allies in the coalition continue to raise all manner of constitutional and procedural obstacles.
“We have practically come to the single conclusion that there is no other way to resolve the crisis besides holding democratic and honest elections,” Yanukovych initially told a crowd of supporters in the center of Kyiv on Friday, following talks with the president.
Yushchenko, during a press conference the same day, could hardly conceal his sense of triumph, suggesting that he would recognize the parliament he had dismissed in order to pass legislation needed to hold new elections.
“Maybe I am rushing a little bit ahead, but if all agreements are strictly observed. I am ready to show up to the Verkhovna Rada, and after parliament passes all relevant decisions, I will sign all the decisions that need to be signed on the spot.”
Days later, the rhetoric had changed significantly.
This week, the president and his team continued to press for elections to be held in July at the latest, while the Regions made it clear they prefer the fall. Going to the polls later in the year would allow the government to capitalize on the higher state salaries and pensions it had recently pushed through. But if it were only a matter of the two sides compromising on a date, observers would indeed be justified in rejoicing on a settlement.
According to analysts, Yanukovych and his party have everything to gain by delaying the elections and nothing to lose by not holding them at all.
Kyiv-based political analyst Mykhaylo Pogrebinsky said Yanukovych had no intention of pushing briskly forward toward early elections when he made his announcement on Friday.
“It was clear that it was some kind of improvisation that Yanukovych would not follow through just like that.”
As Yushchenko was the one to raise the stakes in his showdown with the premier by dismissing the Rada and calling new elections, he has the most to lose if they don’t take place.
“The most important thing for Yushchenko is to save face,” Pogrebinsky said.
Ever since the president endorsed Yanukovych as premier last summer, thereby raising him from the ignominy he suffered following his fraud-marred bid for the presidency in 2004, the Donetsk strongman has relentlessly wrenched away executive authority from Yushchenko. The president’s ratings took a nosedive, while observers at home and abroad began to question his backbone.
Yushchenko finally started to fight back this spring, stealing the initiative from his aggressive opponent with his unexpected and legally questionable ouster of parliament.
Supported by the political camp of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, the president’s party boycotted parliamentary sessions, while Yushchenko started stacking the country’s judiciary and law-enforcement bodies in his favor. Last month, the president replaced the prosecutor general and two justices from the Constitutional Court in an attempt to prevent the parliamentary majority from scoring a “legal” victory. Taken by surprise, Yanukovych’s coalition now appears to be reverting back to its old tricks – conceding to vague agreements, which they then stall, hamper and ignore.
Yushchenko agreed last summer to endorse his former rival for the presidency, whom he once depicted as a thug, on the basis of a vague agreement of policy that held no legal weight. The president is unlikely to be duped again, but that doesn’t mean his battle is over.
By agreeing to new elections but not setting a date, Yanukovych has stolen the wind from the president’s sails. Calling early elections that keep getting put off and dismissing a parliament that continues to pass legislation with impunity will only make the president look weaker.
Vadym Karasyov, a political analyst with the Institute of Global Strategies, said, “The president now has to make another show of strength or reach a compromise with his opponents.”
In the meantime, Yanukovych’s Regions has time on its side, in addition to a whole arsenal of demands to exchange for taking part in new polls.
Within the last month, Regions has called for repeat presidential elections together with parliamentary ones. Polls have consistently shown Yanukovych ahead of Yushchenko and his renewed Orange ally Tymoshenko, however, the premier is a long way off from commanding a majority of voter support.
Another demand being put forward by the Regions and their coalition allies is to have new elections approved by parliament, thus diminishing the significance of the president’s decree.
Most importantly, in wearing down the president’s camp, Yanukovych and his party don’t have to do any of the dirty work. Unlike the Regions, the Socialists and Communists – the other two parties in the pro-government coalition – have serious fears about making it past the three percent barrier in a snap election. Therefore, they have greater interest in preventing the elections from taking place.
Both the pro-presidential Our Ukraine party and Tymoshenko’s opposition faction have accused the leftists of sabotaging the May 4 compromise.
“It’s patently clear that there are primarily two political parties – the Communists and the Socialists – who are consciously hampering talks on the initiative,” reads a statement released May 8 on the website of the Yushchenko-loyal Our Ukraine party. The same day, Tymoshenko confidante Oleksandr Turchynov suggested that the Regions faction was conniving with its leftist allies.
With Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz as parliamentary speaker and a Communist as his first deputy, they are well-placed to block legislative proceedings.
Moroz, an ally of Yushchenko during his rise to power, has become his fiercest opponent, recently going so far as to suggest that the opposition might have staged a recent train crash and an explosion at a gas pipeline to blame the government for incompetence.
“The Regions are interested in delaying new elections, while the Socialists and Communists don’t want them at all,” Karasyov said.
