After weeks of speculation about the possibility of Moscow targeting Ukraine following its military standoff with Georgia, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has dubbed such fears as a “provocation”
While many in Ukraine remain suspicious, Putin insisted his country respects Ukraine’s borders and has no plans to invade Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
“Crimea isn’t a disputed territory…Russia has recognized the presentday borders of Ukraine long ago,” Putin said on Aug. 29 in an interview with Germany’s ARD radio.
Yet many remained alarmed about the possibility of a military confrontation between Kyiv and its northern neighbor.
For one, many point to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s pledge to protect Russian citizens across the globe. With its strategic location as base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and its large Russian population, Crimea stands out in the minds of many as a possible hotspot where Russia could move in under the pretext of protecting its citizens, as it did in Georgia.
Experts in Ukraine immediately said Putin may not be saying the whole truth because other Russian politicians have made threatening statements about Ukraine’s renewed vigor in seeking closer ties with NATO in the wake of the Georgian war.
In addition, Putin himself has been quoted doubting the cohesiveness of Ukrainian statehood during an overheard conversation at a NATO summit in Bucharest in April this year.
“You understand George, Ukraine isn’t even a state! What is Ukraine? One part of its territory is in Eastern Europe, and the other part, the significant portion, was a gift from us,” Putin apparently told U.S. President George Bush in an offthecuff conversation.
This embarrassing exchange was overheard and reported by the daily Russian newspaper Kommersant, and is often repeated by Western media, despite having been debunked by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other officials.
Kommersant also quoted Putin hinting that should Ukraine join NATO, it would split apart along its Ukrainian and Russianspeaking populations, and lose Crimea.
Ukraine’s hopes of being accepted for a NATO Membership Action Plan were delayed at the April summit in Romania largely because a handful of European members didn’t want to upset Russia.
Ukraine’s main champion for speedy Western integration, President Victor Yushchenko, will try to revive chances of kick starting NATO membership during U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s visit to Ukraine on Sept. 45. Newly emerging risks in light of the Georgia conflict will also be high up on the agenda during their talks. And next week – at a UkraineEurope summit on Sept. 9 in Evian, France – Yushchenko will push to finalize a closer partnership agreement with Brussels.
Experts predict that if these negotiations go well – under question considering news this week that Kyiv’s prowestern coalition was on the verge of collapse – relations with Russia might soon take a nasty turn.
What would be the first signs of trouble?
Some Russian officials have called for the cancellation of “friendship” agreements signed in the 1990s between Kyiv and Moscow. Through the agreements, both countries mutually agreed to respect each other’s territorial integrity and avoid military conflicts at all costs.
But relations have soured nevertheless.
Seventeen years after the Soviet Union’s breakup, both countries have yet to demarcate some 2, 295 kilometers of joint borders. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of dragging its feet on this issue.
Speedy demarcation of the Azov Sea, home to sizable hydrocarbon reserves and fish populations, is a top priority for Ukraine.
“Russia will continue to drag out the demarcation process in any case, simply out of spite,” said Viktor Chumak, director of political programs of the International Center for Policy Studies.
A remote possibility is a conflict escalating between Russia and Ukraine along an entirely different border. Russia has a 2, 000strong peacekeeping contingent in Transdniester, a breakaway Moldovan territory with a population of 500, 000 along Ukraine’s southwest border.
Political analyst Oleksandr Paliy said it is possible Russia will move to “start some action” by flaring up separatism in Ukraine, or challenging its borders in some fashion.
“But Russia would have to understand that such a move would be the beginning of a fullscale war with Ukraine, not a regional conflict” as seen in Georgia.
“I hope Russia is not ready for a war like that,” he added.
