In a note to investors on Oct. 2 citing fresh figures provided by Ukraine's state statistics, investment bank Renaissance Capital Ukraine said there are signs of that Ukraine could be making a slow economic recovery.
“On 30 Sep Ukraine’s State Statistics Committee released 2Q09 GDP data. The numbers showed Ukraine’s real GDP shrank 17.8% YoY vs a preliminary estimate of 18% and a 20.3% drop in the previous quarter. Despite the fact the YoY decline in all main GDP components remained rather substantial, in 2Q09 there was improvement in the dynamic of almost all sectors indicating QoQ growth of GDP,” Renaissance Capital said.
“The most notable improvement was posted by transports, which we regard as particularly indicative in terms of a revival of economic activity. The drop of added-value in this sector slowed to -8.6% YoY in 2Q vs -14.6% YoY in 1Q09. The YoY dynamic of the key sectors that comprise the highest share of GDP, manufacturing and trade, improved just slightly in the second quarter to -33% and -17.6% respectively. This was mainly due to the high base of comparison. Construction contracted the most (-47.3% YoY in 2Q09 vs -54.1% YoY in 1Q09) due toUkrainian banks stillnot issueing new retail loans (especially new mortgage loans). Agriculture was the only sector that continued to grow even in 4Q08-1Q09, and which saw an increase in value-added to 2.3% YoY in 2Q vs 1.3% in 1Q09,” the bank added.
Renaissance Capital went on to say: “The Statistics Committee also recently released other important indicators, which showed improvement, hinting at the beginning of a slight recovery in 2Q09. The decline in real disposable income slowed to –8.3% YoY in 2Q vs – 12.9% YoY seen in 1Q09. The unemployment declined to 9.9% as of the end of June vs 10.3% in April.”
