The trade war with Russia, which was in full swing in early August, ended as sudden as it had begun. But Russia used its last warning shot to emphasize just how much it opposes Ukraine signing an Association Agreement with the European Union at an upcoming summit.
“Since
Ukraine expects to sign the Association agreement with the EU in
November, which involves the free trade agreement, many risks will
present themselves regarding possible tax free export of European
goods (to Russia) from Ukraine,” Sergei Glazyev, an advisor to
Russian president Vladimir Putin, told Vesti newspaper on Aug. 20.
He
said that by causing hurdles and halting many Ukrainian companies’
exports to Russia early in August, Russia was “testing our
preventive measures,” which the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan will have to toughen if Ukraine follows through with
its plans to ink the deal with the EU.
Kazakhstan
continued to test those measures as it announced on Aug. 20 it was
banning Ukraine’s poultry imports, according to Interfax news agency.
The
trade war between Ukraine and Russia escalated on Aug. 14 when
Ukrainian companies accused Russian customs of conducting intensified
examinations of shipment documents, implementing stricter control
procedures, which included obligatory unloading, and unloading and
re-loading goods, and sometimes taking samples that made the goods
unusable.
Glazyev
said further measures might include Russia exiting the free trade
zone it currently has with Ukraine. At the same time, the future for
Ukraine will be very bright if the country joins the Customs Union,
Glazyev assured, promising cheaper natural gas, tax free oil and a 7
percent growth of Ukrainian Gross Domestic Product.
On
Aug. 21 the Ukrainian government issued a statement assuring that the
issue with Russian customs has been solved and Ukrainian exporters
were facing only “normal customs procedures.”
The
announcement came days after Ukrainian Viktor Yanukovych and his
Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone, discussing
“various aspects of mutual cooperation, including the questions of
customs procedures for Ukrainian export at the Russian-Ukrainian
border,” according to a statement released by Yanukovych’s press
service on Aug. 16.
Russia
has been unsuccessfully trying for years to lure Ukraine into the
Kremlin-led Customs Union it formed with Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Ukraine, however, has insisted it wants no more than the observer
status it currently holds in the trade union, and that would prefer
to sign the Association Agreement with the EU.
Included
in the EU deal is a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement,
which will allow for unprecedented economic integration with Europe.
Weeks
before the major customs trouble with Russia, Roshen, Ukraine’s
largest confectioner, owned by pro-European businessman and former
parliamentarian Petro Poroshenko, was accused of “systemic
violations” by Russia’s top health inspector and banned from
exporting sweets to Russia.
In
previous years it was Ukrainian cheese that had been found to be
faulty by Russia, followed by poultry products. Exports to Russia
total $1.3 billion per month and account for 24 percent of total
goods exported from Ukraine, according to state statistics.
Despite
the current truce, experts warn that pressure from Moscow will mount
as the November Ukarine-EU summit nears.
“What
we have seen lately is just a threat, a demonstration of what might
be if Ukraine signs the Association Agreement. And Ukraine should get
ready for even more pressure,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, head of
Penta, a Kyiv-based think tank.
“It
looks like Russia has moved from economical pressure to ideological
one,” says Vadym Karasyov, a political analyst referring to
Glazyev’s interview.
“Now
the stake is made at a massive informational campaign in Ukraine
where Russia will agitate against the EU and promise a bright future
in the Customs Union. They will try to fuel dissatisfaction with the
European prospects of Ukraine so that the signing of the agreement
will be at least postponed,” says Karasyov.
If
Russian aims at changing the public opinion in Ukraine, it has a lot
to accomplish. Some 41.6 percent of Ukrainians support Ukraine
entering the EU, according to the most recent survey by Democratic
Initiatives and Razumkov Center, presented on Aug. 21. In contrast,
31 percent of Ukrainians are for joining the Customs Union, while
13.5 percent said they do not support either. Undecided Ukrainians
accounted for 13.7 percent of those polled.
Experts
also say that the Russian anti-Ukraine campaign might backfire and
force Europe to go softer on Ukraine.
“Uncivilized
pressure by Russia might give European politicians more arguments for
signing the agreement and convince those of them who are currently
undecided on Ukraine,” Fesenko says.
Kyiv
Post staff writer Svitlana Tuchynska can be reached at
[email protected].
