Another year of relentless infighting, inaction and missed opportunities characterized the political year 2008
Another year of relentless infighting, inaction and missed opportunities characterized the 2008 political year. Politicians chose to squabble instead of seizing opportunities to soften the economic blow brought on by the global financial crisis and looming 2009 recession. Unfortunately, the country’s poor and middle class will once again bear the brunt most of all.
1Gazprom backs down to Tymoshenko
Ukraine and Russia squared off for yet another price standoff over natural gas supplies early this year. As in 2006, when the Russians briefly interrupted gas supplies, the Kremlin again threatened to disrupt the flow of blue fuel through Ukraine to Europe. But this time, Ukraine had a different prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, and she was intent on ousting shadowy middlemen from the multi-billion-dollar gas trade between Ukraine, Russia and Central Asia. Having briefly reduced supplies for Ukraine and made headlines, Gazprom backed down. The Russians also agreed to remove one such middleman that Tymoshenko says has milked money from Ukraine’s domestic gas market, UkrGazEnergo. However, Gazprom kept in place Tymoshenko’s main target, the Swiss-registered RosUkrEnergo intermediary which supplies gas to Ukraine. This year, Tymoshenko claims to be closer than ever to ousting RosUkrEnergo, whose transparency has been questioned by the United States and United Kingdom-based Global Witness. Will mighty Russia and others with huge profits at stake back down again to Tymoshenko this New Year’s Eve?
2Chernovetsky again elected as Kyiv mayor
For many, it was impossible and unthinkable. Despite rampant corruption, numerous serious accusations and widespread distaste for his eccentric behavior, Leonid Chernovetsky retained the mayor’s office after a spring election. The hopelessly disunited Orange Revolution forces lined up rival candidates to challenge Chernovetsky. Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc was represented by Oleksandr Turchynov, who finished in second. Heavyweight boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko finished third. Some, like Tymoshenko, say President Victor Yushchenko wanted Chernovetsky to win the May 25 special election all along and accuse the president of profiting from suspect land deals. True or not, the controversial Chernovetsky will be around as mayor of Kyiv for even longer now.
3Russia-Georgia war fears spread to Ukraine
Relations between Russia and a pro-Western Ukraine sunk to all-time lows when a brief war broke out between Moscow and Georgia, another ex-Soviet republic allied with the West. President Victor Yushchenko sided with Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili. He even tried to contain Russia’s use of Crimean-based naval vessels against Tbilisi. Fears broke out that Russia might target Ukraine, scaring off investors and catalyzing a stock market slide that only deepened when the global financial crisis erupted in the autumn.
4NATO gives divided Kyiv cold shoulder
The show of force by Russia scared many European members of the NATO military alliance, convincing them it was too early to offer Ukraine and Georgia into the so-called Membership Action Plans. They feared that Russia could stir up trouble, and they could be drawn into a conflict between Kyiv and Moscow over the Russian-leaning Crimean peninsula. Another recurrent concern by NATO members in their decision-making proved to be Kyiv’s unstable politics. Relentless bickering by Ukraine’s leaders, including spats over the wisdom of NATO membership and low public support for joining the alliance, convinced its members that Ukraine’s time has not yet come.
5Kyiv inches closer to European Union
The setback on efforts by Ukraine to join NATO was a painful blow, but there was a glimmer of hope as the country sealed a preliminary deal with the European Union. A free-trade pact may soon be on the horizon. While the benefits of free trade with Brussels will bear fruit over time, signing the agreement was yet one more sign indicating that more unity and less personal ambitions within Kyiv’s pro-Western leadership could have achieved much more.
6Pro-Western coalition collapses
Accusing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of currying favor with the Kremlin during its war with Georgia, President Victor Yushchenko’s political bloc quit her coalition. The president dissolved parliament, setting the stage for a snap vote. His aim was to undercut her chances as a competitor in the 2009 presidential contest. But it was not to be. The global financial hurricane swept across Ukraine. Tymoshenko masterfully capitalized on this opportunity to hold on as premier, arguing that crisis is not the time for a divisive election. The election never happened and none is scheduled. Tymoshenko held on as premier, even without a coalition. It was yet another blow to the battered Yushchenko, whose popularity rating sunk to all-time lows.
7Tymoshenko sidesteps Yushchenko
In 2007, Volodymyr Lytvyn, the one-time chief of staff for former President Leonid Kuchma and ex-Verkhovna Rada speaker ran for parliament declaring: “Ukraine needs Lytvyn!” The slogan suggested that Lytvyn was alone capable of uniting rival factions in parliament into a constructive mold. As it turns out, Tymoshenko needed him to form a new coalition, and hold on as premier. The coalition they formed in December with half of the pro-presidential bloc has thus far been relatively productive in adopting anti-crisis legislation. So maybe Lytvyn was right when he suggested that he alone could unite rivals and jumpstart effective work in parliament.
8President loses control over his party
When a majority of his own party voted to join Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn into what is a de facto anti-presidential coalition, President Victor Yushchenko slipped even further into political irrelevance. As the days go by, it seems that more of his former allies will abandon what seems like a sinking ship, allying themselves with leaders who have more political capital. Will the new coalition, Communists and the Moscow-leaning Regions Party led by Victor Yanukovych impeach Yushchenko? Perhaps the coalition will clip Yushchenko’s wings some more by adopting legislation that cuts presidential authority. As he fights for a last hurrah, Yushchenko’s power tussle with Tymoshenko is getting uglier by the day. Whether this will benefit Tymoshenko and her chances of winning the presidency in 2010 is hard to say. Citizens appear sick and tired of the never-ending “Victor vs. Victor and Yulia show.”
“I am in opposition to President Victor Yushchenko… and the criminal grouping around him,” Tymoshenko said this month, calling upon Yushchenko to resign for allegedly profiting on currency speculation .
9Victor Baloha calls shots for president
When Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko accused his boss of profiting on shadowy currency deals, presidential chief of staff Victor Baloha – one of the most demonized individuals in the country — wasted no time retaliating. He suggested Tymoshenko herself could have profited from currency speculation in collaboration with none other than George Soros.
Many within Yushchenko’s own camp question why he has kept Baloha in power and so close for so long. His unforgiving criticism of Tymoshenko is one of the few predictable things in Ukraine. Yet presidential allies themselves complain that Yushchenko’s popularity rating has sunk to all-time lows since the “crisis” manager took over in 2006 as chief of staff.
You can question whether Baloha is effective or not for Yushchenko’s rating. One thing is for sure, however: He still calls many of the shots in Ukraine. That’s why Korrespondent Magazine, the Kyiv Post’s Russian-language sister publication, this month named him the most influential person in Ukraine.
10 Medvedchuk returns to spotlight
Perhaps the only one who could rival Victor Baloha as crisis manager is grey cardinal and power broker Victor Medvedchuk, the former chief of staff under President Leonid Kuchma. It is ironic, but true. Medvedchuk and Baloha were close friends and political allies years ago. Now they are enemies, but still in the same line of work. Medvedchuk seemed to have dropped off the face of the earth after the Orange Revolution, where he was public enemy No. 1 with many of the millions of people who protested the attempt to rig the 2004 presidential election. But now he is seeping back, allegedly as a secret adviser to Yulia Tymoshenko. His friendly ties with Russia’s leadership are a big asset to Tymoshenko, albeit a public embarrassment, in her fight against Yushchenko and his chief of staff, Victor Baloha. What awaits this dysfunctional political family in 2009?
