Exit polls gave a narrow win for Ukraine's Victor Yanukovych over Yulia Tymoshenko in Sunday's election for president, but the refusal of his rival to concede defeat appeared to deny the country a quick return to stability.
Three exit polls put opposition leader Yanukovych between 4 and just over 5 percent ahead of Prime Minister Tymoshenko. But though the victory was hailed as "absolute" by a Yanukovych aide, it was narrower than his camp had hoped for.
The charismatic Tymoshenko, 49, who rallied tens of thousands against Yanukovych five years ago in the "Orange Revolution" protests over his rigged election then, refused to concede victory to her opponent on Sunday night.
She said she would await the official results of the count which were coming in overnight.
Significantly though, in a televised broadcast that was moderately-worded in contrast to her usual fiery style, she did not renew a threat made last week to call her supporters out on the streets if she suspected electoral fraud.
Analysts say that probably reflects a realisation on her part that there is no appetite for a replay of the Orange Revolution in the country of 46 million which is in the grip of a deep economic crisis and suffering from election fatigue.
If she made such a call and it flopped, it would be politically dangerous for her.
But, if the narrow Yanukovych victory is confirmed by overnight results, then her aides could still try a legal challenge to the result.
In Ukraine’s bureaucratic judicial system that could lead to protracted legal wrangling.
"Such a small gap means that there will be a serious fight for the final election results," said Yuri Yakimenko of the Razumkov Centre.
"The margin is not convincing and it is not the 10-12 percent as Yanukovych’s side has said. They could not fulfil their tasks and so we await a long court battle," he said.
OSCE VERDICT
Other analysts said much would hinge on the final verdict handed down by international election monitors led by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe which is due on Monday — and if Tymoshenko will accept their findings.
"Tymoshenko needs to concede defeat. However, she will not. She will do this at some point and that will all depend on the opinion of the election observers," said Mykhailo Pogrebinsky of the Kyiv research Centre of Political Studies.
Even if Tymoshenko finally concedes, Yanukovych will have to be careful how he handles his powerful rival whose sizeable share of the vote has underscored her role as one of the most powerful and able politicians in Ukraine.
After the bitterness of the campaign in which she has openly insulted him, he has made it clear there is no prospect of an alliance with her.
Ukrainian media quoted him as saying she should prepare to resign as prime minister.
Assuming Yanukovych’s victory is confirmed, Tymoshenko can expect in any case to be ousted as prime minister by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Yanukovych will then seek to put together a new coalition to get his own ally into the key role.
For this, however, he may need the support — by no means certain — of the Our Ukraine faction of President Victor Yushchenko. Yanukovych may need only some of the Our Ukraine faction to secure a workable majority.
If this fails, then he will have to dissolve parliament and call a snap parliamentary poll which will put back further the chances of a stable government and delay the resumption of much-needed bail-out cash from the International Monetary Fund.
Fresh parliamentary elections could be held as early as June though autumn is more likely. However, Yanukovych appears to be reluctant to call fresh elections, fearing voter fatigue.
Most analysts agree that the winning side needs a strong majority in parliament — if only to avoid the sort of paralysing conflict there was between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.
"There are a lot challenges in the country. We don’t want a repeat of the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko relationship," said Tim Ash of the Royal Bank of Scotland.
Either way, a quick end to political tension in Ukraine appears unlikely.
