Tymoshenko is campaigning hard to close the 10 percent gap on Yanukovych, but opinions are divided whether she would be able to catch up.
Yulia Tymoshenko is fighting hard to mobilize support and close the gap on presidential election front-runner Victor Yanukovych ahead of the Feb. 7 runoff. With 10 percentage points to make up on her rival, the key to a Tymoshenko victory is seen as depending on whether she can convince ideologically sympathetic voters in the post-Orange electorate to come out and vote, as well as convert some of the electorate of her former rivals.
Her task was complicated this week by the refusal of Sergiy Tigipko, who placed third with 13 percent, to agree to a deal to support her in return for the post of prime minister. Additionally, the fourth and fifth place finishers in the Jan. 17 preliminary vote – ex-Verkhovna Rada speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk and President Victor Yushchenko – pointedly refused to endorse either Yanukovych or Tymoshenko. Yanukovych got 35 percent of the vote in the first round, compared to 25 percent for Tymoshenko.
After exit polls were announced on voting day, Tymoshenko immediately set about framing the choice as between a democratic, pro-European future and a return to the “Stone Age” under a candidate backed by corrupt oligarchs.
“The majority of Ukrainian voters showed they are prepared to vote for democracy, against criminal gangs and oligarchy,” Tymoshenko said.
Oleksiy Haran, a political scientist and professor at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, said “she can win if she clearly draws a line for voters showing the differences between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych.”
“In the first round, it was difficult for Tymoshenko to do this because there were a lot of candidates from the post-Orange electorate,” Haran said. “In the second round, everything depends on how that electorate is inclined. In other words, will it see Yanukovych as a threat to Ukraine’s European choice?”
The 12.5 percent of the vote secured by Yushchenko and Yatseniuk mostly came from the nationally minded, pro-European west and center. Analysts said Tymoshenko could tap into that pool if she can win over wavering voters.
In the first round, she was “between a rock and a hard place,” said Haran, fighting Yanukovych, on one side, and rivals for the post-Orange vote such as Yushchenko and Yatseniuk, on the other. “Their positions actually helped Yanukovych, as part of the electorate could vote against both candidates, and a vote against all is in effect a vote for Yanukovych,” Haran added. “Yanukovych’s electorate is already mobilized, but Tymoshenko has to bring the electorate onto her side.”
Third-placed Sergiy Tigipko’s 13 percent was spread across the country, with a higher proportion in the Yanukovych-friendly south and east. Much depends on whether these swing voters decide to vote at all. “They voted against Tymoshenko and Yanukovych as a protest. They were looking for someone new,” said Victor Nebozhenko, director of the Ukrainian Barometer think tank.
Tymoshenko’s talent for energetic campaigning skills could prove a major advantage in the scramble to win over swing voters in the coming weeks. She hasn’t shied away from taking the fight to Yanukovych’s heartland in the east of the country, making trips to Luhansk and Kharkiv this week in bid to win over floating voters.
“She is a brilliant communicator,” Nebozhenko said. “Yanukovych’s team has been hiding him and we haven’t seen him. But now there are only two candidates left, it’s harder to sell a pig in a poke as people who voted for other candidates are waiting for messages.”
Yanukovych turned up the volume on his pro-European rhetoric this week in an attempt to broaden his appeal. “I will lead Ukraine along the European path,” he said on Jan. 19.
At a press conference on Jan. 19, Deputy Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria, one of Tymoshenko’s closest advisers, trumpeted a letter of support to Tymoshenko from Wilfried Martens, president of the European People’s Party.
He then launched a scathing attack on Yanukovych’s European credentials.
“He needs to prove his European values by taking part in a debate,” Nemyria said, referring to the election front-runner’s refusal to take on Tymoshenko live on television. “By not debating, Yanukovych shows his weakness. There are no debates in countries that are authoritarian and where there is no free speech.” Yanukovych, who is famously inarticulate and prone to gaffes, is believed to fear Tymoshenko’s sharp rhetorical skills.
All of the top three eliminated candidates – Tigipko, Yatseniuk and Yushchenko – are remaining on the fence. Tymoshenko said in televised comments on Jan. 20 that she had offered the position of prime minister to Tigipko, adding that the offer would remain open after the election.
Serhiy Sobolev, a lawmaker in Tymoshenko’s party, said on a television talk show on Jan. 19 that the offering of government posts was not the most important negotiating point. “Nobody cares about any offices, because everybody is evading offices amid the crisis,” he said. “It is much more important for the teams of the people who came in third, fourth, or fifth to see the key ideas of their campaigns become reality.”
Tymoshenko’s preparations for the second round have stretched well beyond campaigning. Her team has moved to shore up her position on the Central Election Commission, after the removal of a commission member from the Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defense bloc was dismissed after reaching retirement age. Tymoshenko’s camp said that this now gives Party of Regions a majority of support, and argued that he should be replaced by a member of Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc.
They also repeated accusations Yanukovych’s team had falsified results in the first round, which raises the possibility of a challenge in the second round if Tymoshenko loses. Oleksandr Turchynov, Tymoshenko’s campaign chief, claimed on Jan. 18 that her tally was reduced by 3 percent and Yanukovych’s increased by 3 percent through falsifications in eastern Ukraine, the Party of Regions powerbase. But they failed to present evidence of the alleged mass fraud, while international observers called the elections generally free and fair.
Kyiv Post staff writer James Marson can be reached at [email protected].
