Ukrainians went to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president in a close run-off between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich following a bitterly fought campaign.
But hopes that Ukraine could return to stability may be dashed; although many see a narrow Yanukovich victory, the fiery Tymoshenko has threatened to call for protests in a replay of the 2004 "Orange Revolution" if she deems the vote unfair.
A decisive outcome should reset the ex-Soviet republic’s relations Russia which plummeted under pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, and decide the speed of Ukraine’s path into the European mainstream.
Challenges to the result will further hurt investor confidence in the crisis-hit economy, and will delay talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $16.4 billion bail-out programme derailed by breached promises of fiscal restraint.
The euphoria of 2004, when protests overturned rigged results that gave Yanukovich victory, has evaporated after five years of falling living standards and paralysing political squabbles between president and prime minister.
Portrayed as Moscow’s stooge in the "Orange Revolution", 59-year-old Yanukovich is eyeing a comeback after a campaign dominated by smear and accusation. He won 10 percent more of the votes than Tymoshenko in the first round on Jan. 17.
The personal antagonism between the beefy, slow-speaking Yanukovich and the elegant, sharp-tongued Tymoshenko mirrors the gulf between Ukraine’s pro-Russian east and nationalist west. "Her or Him" read one newspaper headline in the capital, Kiev.
Yanukovich, an ex-mechanic who draws support from the Russian-speaking industrial east and south, went to church on Saturday and lit candles at an icon depicting the resurrection.
"It’s a beautiful day," he said under a weak sun in the snow-bound capital. "New times are coming for Ukraine, very soon. They should be good times." Observers are unsure whether Tymoshenko can draw the crowds for protests. But a close result challenged in court will only prolong instability in the country of 46 million people.
Both candidates say they want to integrate with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, though Tymoshenko is seen as more enthusiastic about the EU.
The petite 49-year-old former gas tycoon has accused Yanukovich of cheating after his Regions Party pushed through parliament amendments to voting rules after the first round.
A spokesman for the election arm of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said that while it was not "good practice" to make last-minute changes, the amendments should change little if voting officials work in good faith.
Polls open from 8.00 a.m. (0600 GMT) until 8.00 p.m. (1800 GMT), when first exit polls are expected to follow swiftly. OSCE observers will present their findings on Monday. (Additional reporting by Yuri Kulikov; Editing by Jon Hemming)
