In geopolitics there is not such thing as a life-long friend. President Leonid Kuchma, recently a buddy of the West, is finding that his Western pals just can't get on with his Ukrainian friends, and might drive Ukraine into the hands of an old ally it had fallen out with – Russia.
Kuchma was the West's candidate of choice to win a five-year term in the presidential election last fall.
Informally supported by promises of continued strategic partnership during his second and last term in office, Kuchma was unaware that soon after the vote, the United States would demand that he remove a number of his political backers from any policy-making decisions.
The hollowness of America's much-vaunted 'special strategic relationship' with Ukraine became obvious at Kuchma's inauguration ceremony last November. The United States sent a deputy minister. Russia, on the other hand, was represented by Vladimir Putin, the then prime minister and now acting president. Several dozen top diplomats and major business moguls from Russia were also in attendance.
All of Russia's movers and shakers regularly pay low-key visits to Ukraine, and all of them are working to build close business – if not personal – relations with Ukrainian elite.
When Americans and Ukrainians meet, the rapport just isn't there. The Americans keep repeating that they are concerned about the proximity of the oligarchs to the country's leadership, and they pressure the president to keep away from them. During a December meeting with Kuchma in Washington, U.S. Vice President Al Gore asked Kuchma to limit the influence of certain businessmen on policymaking in Ukraine. But America's friendly advice could backfire.
Oligarchs are a part of Ukraine's power structure. Some of them – like Oleksandr Volkov – fill the niche of informal lobbying institutions, and make money by getting contracts for others. Others – like Viktor Pinchuk or Hryhory Surkis – control or own much of the money-making business in the country, such as steel, gas, energy and chemicals.
The Western recipe given to Kuchma looks like a request to replace the old oligarchs with new ones, who will continue to make money the old way in the same old power system.
Naturally, Ukraine's ruling elite finds the Western recipe repellent and confusing, and turns the only way left to it – toward Russia.
Russia, which comes under the same pressure from the Western democracies, becomes a friend in need. A closer relationship with it becomes psychologically comfortable as well as economically sound for Ukraine, which depends on Russia for much of its energy imports.
The Russian oligarchs, who view Ukraine as their potential lucrative business site, become understanding business partners rather than competitors.
America's pressure policy, on the other hand, could be viewed as a logical temporary solution for Ukraine. By attempting to drag Kuchma away from the bad crowd, the United States and other Western countries (who also happen to be Ukraine's largest creditors) are applying the most obvious solution to the problem of Ukraine's widespread corruption.
Unfortunately, by bad-mouthing Kuchma's best buddies, America could be ruining its long-term relations with Ukraine, as well as its own geo-political plans.
