Tymoshenko easily ousted; no ruling majority formed.
Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych got his wish March 3 when parliament dismissed rival Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s government in a no-confidence vote.
The motion – supported by 243 lawmakers in the 450-seat chamber – opens the way for Yanukovych’s Party of Regions to try and form a majority coalition that the president needs to strengthen his grip on power.
Constitutional changes adopted hastily in the heat of the Orange Revolution shifted most control over domestic affairs from the presidency to parliament and government, but the divisions of authority remain muddled.
Eager to produce results for voters, Yanukovych is trying hard to gain control of government, even if he has to change the rules to do so.
Defining moments
The dismissal of Tymoshenko suggests that Yanukovych is lining up strong support in parliament. But even his top aides admit that tough negotiations lie ahead to lure lawmakers into a new alliance.
“The talks are not simple, but I think they will be finalized in the coming days,” said Mykola Azarov, a long-time ally of Yanukovych tipped as a top contender to head Kyiv’s next government, or serve for a third time as minister in charge of state finances.
All 172 Regions Party deputies and 27 Communist deputies, as well as all but one of 20 Lytvyn bloc members, voted to dismiss Tymoshenko’s government. The three factions have expressed their willingness to join Yanukovych’s Regions Party in a coalition. But that still leaves them short of the 226 majority needed to form a constitutional coalition. Seven Tymoshenko bloc deputies and 15 from Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense grouping voted for her ouster, and may help the president reach his magic number.
But, according to the Constitution, coalitions are formed on the basis of factions – requiring, therefore, support from a majority of that faction.
To form a coalition this way, Yanukovych will struggle to win over a majority of Our Ukraine group members, who once backed former President Victor Yushchenko.
But many in the Our Ukraine group don’t like Yanukovych’s pro-Russian foreign policy and fear a backlash from anti-Yanukovych voters. To get around this, Yanukovych’s team is plotting a move that Tymoshenko’s bloc described as “a constitutional coup d’etat.”
They are pushing amendments that would allow deputies to join a coalition on an individual basis. A draft law proposing such changes was adopted in the first reading on March 4, and is expected to be put up for a final vote next week.
Tymoshenko’s team pledged to challenge it in the Constitutional Court and through other means.
First big test
By March 4, the issue of whether to change the rules had emerged as one of the first big challenges of Yanukovych’s presidency.
“It will be seen as an attempt to push the Constitution aside and seize all power,” said Yuriy Yakymenko, head of political programs at the Razumkov Center. “There will definitely be none of the political stability that Europe wants.”
While Yanukovych has threatened to call snap elections if a coalition is not formed, political analysts said he wants to avoid doing so.
A new pre-term election – the next scheduled one is in 2012 – would keep Ukraine mired in destructive politics and hamper the nation’s attempts to lift itself from economic recession.
Violating the Constitution could also spark criticism from the European Union, which gave Yanukovych a friendly reception in Brussels on March 1. During that first foreign visit of his presidency, Brussels urged Yanukovych to stabilize the nation and restore cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
Even parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn expressed doubts as to the legitimacy of a coalition formed by stretching the spirit of the constitution.
“Everyone reads the Constitution in his own way. Some see the regulation that factions create the coalition, others that there should be a minimum of 226 deputies who express a desire to work in the coalition,” he told Kommersant daily.
Bending the rules is part of the game, analysts said.
“Parliament speakers have historically manipulated parliamentary rules and procedures for the benefit of certain political forces,” said Victor Chumak, director of policy programs at the International Center for Policy Studies.
Horse trading
Yanukovych succeeded in sidelining Tymoshenko ahead of his closely-watched visit to Moscow on March 5. The Cabinet of Ministers is now headed by Tymoshenko’s right-hand man, Oleksandr Turchynov.
But any new coalition is likely to have a slim majority.
“The coalition, if formed, will be weak and lack legitimacy,” predicted Yakymenko from the Razumkov Center.
Yanukovych outlined three possible outcomes. “First, a majority of deputies without Our Ukraine; second, with Our Ukraine (a minimum of 37 deputies). The third option is dismissing parliament,” he told Interfax-Ukraine.
Parliament has 30 days from the time of Tymoshenko’s dismissal to form a ruling coalition and 60 days to form a government in order to avoid a snap election. The Our Ukraine grouping, the Communists and the Lytvyn Bloc are seen as most interested in avoiding an early vote. These parties risk not reaching the 3 percent threshold to get into parliament.
Newer parties, led by millionaire ex-banker Sergiy Tigipko and former parliament speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk, are seen as having great chances in an early vote to secure seats. Both ran for president, with Tigipko finishing in third place and Yatseniuk in fourth place in the Jan. 17 first round.
Tymoshenko, meanwhile, is back in her practiced oppositional role, promising to hold Yanukovych accountable.
“We will defend Ukraine from this new disaster that has befallen her,” Tymoshenko said. “If Yanukovych thinks that in a week’s time he’s going to be playing golf and tennis while his circle is dissembling the state’s strategic property on the sly, I can say that golf and tennis end today. He will report every day before the country and the opposition. We’ll keep our finger on the pulse.”
Kyiv Post staff writer James Marson can be reached at [email protected] while Mark Rachkevych is at [email protected].
