Even Kuchma-era foes of his might be potential allies as president looks to shore up his power
Deputies and political analysts urged President Viktor Yushchenko to seek support from one-time political foes in order to broaden his base within Ukraine’s splintered parliament, which rejected his candidate for prime minister Sept. 20.
Speaking to journalists after acting Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov fell five votes short of approval, Deputy Yuriy Kostenko, a Yushchenko ally, urged the president to seek support from the political party headed by Viktor Yanukovych, who challenged Yushchenko in last year’s presidential elections.
Kostenko said mending the differences between the president and Yanukovych’s Regions of Ukraine faction, which has a strong base of support in Eastern Ukraine that voted en masse for Yanukovych in last year’s presidential elections, would ensure Yushchenko musters the needed 226 votes to appoint a prime minister and gather a strong nationwide base of support for his presidency.
Late on Sept. 20, parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn told journalists that Yushchenko planned to re-submit the candidacy of Yekhanurov, adding that he would first hold consultations with various political factions in parliament.
The escalating political crisis that has Yushchenko searching for strange new bedfellows was triggered by the president’s dismissal of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her government. Tymoshenko and her allies allege that she was unfairly fired after she and others uncovered corruption in Yushchenko’s inner circle of associates.
The split between Yushchenko and long time ally Tymoshenko has shifted the balance of political power within the country. Only one member of Tymoshenko’s 40-person faction in parliament voted for Yekhanurov’s candidacy. Without Tymoshenko’s faction, parties allied with Yushchenko lack the majority needed to vote in a prime minister.
It remains unclear what cards Yushchenko will use to gain the support of Yanukovych’s Regions of Ukraine faction. Three of 52 deputies from the Regions faction that voted for Yekhanurov’s candidacy on Sept. 20 were kicked out of the faction later that day.
Under pressure
Tymoshenko has been on the warpath since being ousted as prime minister. She and her allies have repeatedly appeared on television to accuse Yushchenko’s inner circle of corruption – actions that may have boosted their public support during the run-up to the crucial parliamentary elections next March, say political analysts.
The corruption allegations, meanwhile, have acted as political dead weight on Yushchenko and his loyal parties. A deal with Yanukovych, Yushchenko’s opponent during last year’s Orange Revolution, could muster enough votes to appoint a prime minister. But such a deal is likely to alienate voters who supported him on Independence Square last November.
Parliamentary games
The loss of Tymoshenko appears to have Yushchenko and political parties loyal to him scrambling for ideas. Last week, Yushchenko launched a counter attack directed at Tymoshenko, leveling corruption allegations of his own. He also said he would attempt to postpone adoption of political reforms that would shift many of his key powers to the prime minister, who would be chosen by a parliamentary majority after March elections. Appearing in parliament just ahead of the vote on Yekhanurov on Sept. 20, Yushchenko promised deputies that he would not postpone the implementations of political reforms. His promises were not enough to muster votes for Yekhanurov’s candidacy.
If the constitutional changes go into effect, the beneficiary could be Tymoshenko, who is well positioned ahead of parliamentary elections to increase her faction’s size from 40 seats. Yet other key factions in parliament, such as Yanukovych’s Regions faction, the Communists and the Socialists also oppose the postponement of political reforms.
Political analyst Mykhailo Pohrebinsky described the failed vote for Yekhanurov’s candidacy as a consequence of Yushchenko’s recent “chaotic” and poor response to the escalating political conflict.
“He appears to have been over confident, thinking that he is so important that deputies would not reject his candidate for prime minister,” Pohrebinsky said, referring to the decision to put Yekhanurov up for a vote without consulting with deputies to bolster support.
“Yushchenko needs to realize that he is not the czar of Ukraine … that he needs to reach an agreement with deputies, not to tell them how to lead their lives,” Pohrebinsky said.
Scrambling for support
Rather than trying to strike a risky deal with Yanukovych, Pohrebinsky said Yushchenko should get the ear of some 26 independents and traditionally loyal political groups such as Reform & Order, which are currently swaying closer to Tymoshenko. Like many other members of the Reform & Order political group, Deputy Boris Sobelev, who serves as the president’s representative in parliament, did not support Yekhanurov’s candidacy. It’s a sign of just how complicated things have gotten for Yushchenko.
“He did not go out of the way to gain their support. They are offended,” Pohrebinsky said, adding that the chances of Yekhanurov’s candidacy getting approved in the near future are good – if Yushchenko consults with deputies.
Like Tymoshenko, Pohrebinsky blames Yushchenko’s failing political strategy on his reliance on advice from a small circle of political friends, namely former National Security Chief Petro Poroshenko, first presidential assistant Oleksandr Tretyakov and Mykola Martynenko, who serves as the head of the Our Ukraine People’s Union party.
Tymoshenko’s camp has accused all three of corruption. Pohrebinsky says all three are political liabilities, and have monopolized access to Yushchenko.
“He has to talk more to others, particularly other political forces, and break out of this monopolistic barrier they have created around him,” Pohrebinsky said.
“He has not taken some major hits in connection with political events in recent weeks and instead of bouncing back, he is making some major mistakes,” Pohrebinsky added.
Pohrebinsky said Tymoshenko has made a lot of good political moves in recent weeks and expects her to maintain her oppositionist attacks into the parliamentary elections. He cited a poll conducted in Kyiv that showed that residents are split on the issue of Yushchenko’s decision to fire Tymoshenko. Some 41 percent of Kyivans supported Tymoshenko’s ouster; 45 percent of the population did not. The poll indicated that Tymoshenko’s Fatherland Party is supported by 19 percent of Kyivans; while 13 percent of people in the capital support the Yushchenko-loyal Our Ukraine party. About half were undecided, Pohrebinsky said, adding that their votes are up for grabs.
