The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has forecast that economic activity in the country will gradually be restored as the indicators in the third quarter are positive and are expected to continue in the fourth quarter, which is corroborated by the NBU's liberalized monetary policy.
“Real GDP growth in 2016 is projected at 2.4 percent,” the NBU said on its website.
It has also forecast 12 percent inflation for the next year.
A detailed macroeconomic forecast will be published in the Inflation Report on Oct. 1, 2015.
The next meeting of the NBU board on monetary policy issues will be held on Oct. 29, 2015.
As reported, the State Statistics Service in the middle of June reviewed its GDP decline estimates for the first quarter of 2015 to 17.2 percent from 17.6 percent. It also reported that economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 14.8 percent, in the third quarter it was 5.4 percent, in the second quarter it was 4.5 percent, and in the first quarter it was 1.2 percent.
The Ukrainian national budget for 2015 was originally based on the best case scenario with the real GDP decline being projected at 5.5 percent amid 26.7 percent inflation, and nominal GDP was to grow to Hr 1.85 trillion. However, after the budget was amended by the parliament on Sept. 17, the major indicators were changed: the real GDP decline was raised to 8.9 percent amid 45.8 percent inflation, which allowed for an increase in the estimate of nominal GDP to Hr 1.981 trillion.
