After nearly 25 years of cooperation with Russia, NATO has ordered its strategists to conduct a “deep-dive” analysis of Russia’s military and nuclear strategies following its war against Ukraine and its activities along NATO’s European borders, a senior NATO official has told the Kyiv Post.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the session on Russia had not yet taken place at the time of the interview and NATO requires consensus to make such views public.
Moscow’s actions, including its entry in Syria’s civil war, aggression towards Georgia and its so-called snap exercises that involve massive troop movements, air and maritime deployments near the Baltic states, Norway, and the United Kingdom are “destabilizing Europe,” the official said on Dec. 1 at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels.
“Our focus for many years shifted away from seeing Russia as a problem,” the senior NATO official said. “For a long time it (Russia) worked with us through programs. We have re-focused analysis to include Russia. There’s lots of institutional memory here, and a lot of expertise on Russia and the east. We come back to speed quite quickly.”
He continued: “The rhetoric used by Russia involving nuclear threats, for example, toward Sweden, towards Denmark, has been worrying. Integration of nuclear elements into Russia’s (military) doctrine and exercises have been worrying.”
Russia has conducted 18 snap military exercises without giving prior notification near its borders with NATO countries over the past three years, according to NATO’s information office. The drills have involved more than 150,000 troops, and several appeared to include simulated nuclear attacks.
“We also see a clear increase in Russia’s air and maritime activities, including – it seems – to test its neighbors’ reactions,” NATO’s information office said.
NATO’s challenges with Russia are not short-term problems, the official said.
“Russia doesn’t accept the conclusion of the Cold War,” he said. “It feels constrained by structures that were put in place (after 1991) and NATO’s open door policy (of expansion). Russia feels it has the right to limit the sovereignty of its neighbors – five out of six NATO partner countries in the east have border disputes with Russia.”
A “deep deterrence” plan will be crafted to meet the Russian challenge, the official said, including the development of a hybrid warfare program, with the European Union handling the majority of its “civilian” aspects, including countering “information warfare.”
The senior official declined to provide further details or other steps that would be taken to deter Russia.
Kyiv Post editor Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].
