German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visit Ukraine on the eve of the Aug. 24 Independence Day in what some are billing as a mainly symbolic gesture of support. Others are, of course, hoping that she might be help broker a peace deal that ends Russia’s war against Ukraine.
It is her first visit to Ukraine since
2008.
“The chancellor’s visit is a sign of support for
Ukraine,” said Anka Feldhusen, deputy head of the German Embassy in Ukraine. “Chancellor Merkel wanted to follow up on multiple
conversations she has recently had with President (Petro) Poroshenko,
personally, in Kyiv.”
Merkel and Poroshenko have spoken on the phone
almost daily over the past few weeks. In fact, their relationship is now so
close that Merkel much of her information about the situation in the
war zone directly from the presidential office, officials on both sides say. Senior
staff members of Poroshenko and Merkel are said to have close and productive
working relations.
Merkel expects to discuss the situation in
Ukraine with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk as well, and will meet with
mayors of several cities to take the pulse from the regions. A press conference
is also planned.
Russia, of course, is expected to feature heavily in
the discussion. Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled
to meet on Aug. 26 in Minsk, their first meeting since a brief encounter in
June. The two presidents have spoken on the phone at least three times in the
past several weeks, two officials in Kyiv said, but have not provided
readouts of the conversation – an indication there was little progress to
report.
President Poroshenko’s chief of staff
Boris Lozhkin has traveled to Sochi to talk with his Russian counterpart Sergei
Ivanov, the Kremlin press service said. Poroshenko said he was going to talk
about peace in Minsk. “Ukraine hopes for peace,” Poroshenko said on Aug. 21.
“We’re going to Minsk to talk about peace.” He also said that Ukraine is
calling on Russia “to take the militants away from Ukraine.”
Despite official statements expressing cautious
optimism about the upcoming meeting, diplomats in Ukraine do not expect any
breakthroughs in Minsk. Ukraine is unlikely to agree to a new ceasefire until
the border with Russia is sealed.
But Russia is already talking about a
ceasefire, and has even proposed a United Nations Security Council Statement on
ceasefire on Aug. 21, according to its foreign ministry.
Moreover, Taras Berezovets, a political
analyst of Berta consulting, says that Putin will also push for Ukraine to
accept annexation of Crimea. “Putin is
likely to tell Poroshenko, ‘We will withdraw troops from Donbas in the case you
recognize Crimea,’” Berezovets said.
He also said that Merkel might try to convince Poroshenko to consider some of Russia’s
proposals. “She will likely reiterate that Germany will not intervene
militarily, so should Russia invade, you will be on your own,” he said.
Merkel is also expected to offer humanitarian
assistance to Ukraine. Merkel’s official statement about the visit: “The center
of attention during all meetings will be taken by the current events in Ukraine
and relations with Russia. Moreover, there will be discussions about the
concrete possibilities of support for Ukraine in the current crisis situation.”
German
diplomatic attempts to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine hinge on a “regional
solution” to the war in the Donbas. The Conservative/Social Democrat
government’s position is that a deal must encompass a ceasefire, humanitarian
assistance for civilians in the region, effective border control and
constitutional reforms to devolve further power to the regions, especially eastern
Ukraine.
German
government lawmakers view Merkel’s visit to Ukraine as an attempt to shape a
deal along those lines. Many believe that concrete progress was made at last Aug.
17 meeting of German, French, Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers –
something that Ukrainian foreign minister Pavel Klimkin has repeatedly denied.
And
the German government downplays talk that – in meetings with Poroshenko – the
chancellor will push for Ukraine to de facto accept Moscow’s annexation of
Crimea, pointing to Merkel’s repeated denunciations of the seizure of the
territory.
Gas
price also will be a topic. “This would involve Kyiv agreeing to pay the
standard European price of 380 dollars per thousand cubic meter plus fees – so
a realistic price,” said Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council
for Foreign Relations.
Susan
Stewart, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Research Division of the
German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said “there could
definitely be some talk about some aid package for rebuilding the Donbas. I don’t
think there would be any kind of military aid promised.”
Stewart
said that, even though Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and seizure of the
Crimean peninsula violate international law, she does not expect any “substantial
stationing of troops beyond what is the case in the Baltics in the new NATO
member states. She wants to adhere to that document.”
She
thinks that Russia’s actions calls for “a new response” from the international
community about the Kremlin’s threat.
Stewart
said that, in Ukraine’s favor, German public opinion – from Merkel to business
leaders to the general public – has shifted to favor even tougher sanctions
against Russia if it does not stop its aggression.
“Germany
is not the one that has been the greatest brake on the harsher response or
getting to the sanctions we have now,” Stewart said, referring to the
reluctance of several other EU countries to impose tough measures. “The public
sentiment has changed to be more in favor of sanctions…if there are further
sanctions, it will take another real event, like the Malaysian Airlines plane
(shot down on July 17, killing 298 people). We seen an incremental
deterioration is not enough to trigger more sanctions.”
Her
assessment is that a breakthrough will be difficult.
“Russia
is not interested in peace. It is interested in continuing to destabilize Ukraine.”
Kyiv Post deputy chief editor Katya
Gorchinskaya can be reached at [email protected]. Berlin-based journalist Charles McPhedran and Kyiv Post editors Brian Bonner and Christopher J. Miller
contributed to this report.
