Western capitals are talking about imposing sanctions on Russia again, but there is little movement despite Russia's continued support of separatists and a buildup of Russian military hardware in eastern Ukraine.
After a Nov. 2 election widely criticized by Western and Ukrainian leaders as violating the Minsk peace agreements, separatist leaders show no signs of retreating from their goal of creating independent Russia-aligned statelets in Donetsk and Luhansk. In contrast to Western denunciations of the vote, Moscow says it “respects” it though its end goals besides a continued destabilization of Ukraine remain unclear.
As winter approaches, Ukrainian and Western officials fear that the Kremlin is up to its old deceptive tricks as a military equipment continues to enter Ukraine’s separatist east from Russia despite ongoing negotiations.
European Union foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini told reporters in Berlin on Nov. 11 that recent events in Ukraine “demand a response from the international community.” She added that EU foreign ministers would meet on Nov. 17 to discuss new sanctions and ways to support Ukraine.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has taken a leading role in pushing for harsher sanction on Russia. “Russia’s illegal actions are destabilizing a sovereign state and violating its territorial integrity,” he said in London’s financial district on Nov. 9. “We shouldn’t need to be reminded of the consequences of turning a blind eye when big countries in Europe bully smaller countries.”
American leaders have also been pushing for expanded sanctions. In a statement on Nov. 9, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki yet again condemned Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and said that “costs to Russia will rise” if Moscow continues ignore its commitments under Minsk peace agreements, which called for de-militarization of the conflict and political autonomy in the east within Ukraine.
The U.S. has generally taken a more aggressive stand on sanctions against Russia than the EU, which is the main market for Russia’s energy exports. Germany is Russia’s largest trading partner within the EU, but continues to be hesitant to impose new economics sanctions on Russia. “Further economic sanctions are not planned at the moment. We are focusing on the winter and the humanitarian situation there and how to get a real ceasefire,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Nov. 11.
Although a failure to expand economic sanctions against Russia is unwelcome news in Kyiv, Merkel suggested that a toughening of travel bans and asset freezes against individuals may be forthcoming.
“Likely there will be more names associated with the elections held in DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Luhansk self-proclaimed republics). Last week Merkel said she favored adding more individuals to the sanctions list,” said Timothy Ash, head of emerging market research for Standard Bank in London.
Current sanctions have curtailed the ability of Russian banks and other institutions to borrow from Western financial institutions. Russia’s economic growth has nearly ground to a halt with the the ruble losing 29 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg. The sharp drop in oil prices, dipping below $80 a barrel, has also contributed to Russia’s economic woes.
But the sanctions and decline in oil export revenue haven’t prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to backdown on Ukraine. Andrei Purgin, deputy premier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, was invited to the upper house of Russia’s parliament on Nov. 10. There he told Russian senators the recent vote was “a sign people trust the current authorities.”
Some experts worry that Putin simply has no concern for the Russian economy.
“Vladimir Putin does not understand economics. He does not like it. It is dry. It’s boring to hear these reports, to read them. He likes clear things: Russia’s moving ahead; how great everything is,” said former Putin aide Sergei Pugachev in a recent interview with Time Magazine. “Putin’s close circle understands that he likes good news, so they always bring him good news, whatever is happening.”
