Ukrainian diplomats expressed cautious optimism that a last-ditch effort in Minsk today could finally secure peace for Ukraine's war-torn provinces, although the country's President Petro Poroshenko stressed it should be prepared for war as well. Other observers expressed skepticism, believing that even if an agreement was reached in Minsk, it was unlikely to stick for long.
The
leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia are expected to hold a long
round of peace talks in Minsk in what has been dubbed the ‘the last
chance’ to end a 10-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives. Shortly
before departing for the Belarusian capital, Poroshenko said the meeting would be “possibly the most critical, the most
important day in Ukraine’s history.”
“The fact that (Russian President Vladimir)
Putin is going means that something will be signed,” a Ukrainian
diplomatic source told the Kyiv Post. He spoke on condition of anonymity
because of sensitivity of the negotiations. Putin had been the last participant to
confirm attendance at Minsk this afternoon.
Poroshenko
said that Ukraine’s primary demand is to stop the fighting that has claimed
close to 7,000 lives since the beginning of the conflict, according to Kyiv
Post research.
The
Ukrainian President said he expects to present a united front with France’s
Francois Hollande and Germany’s Angela Merkel at the negotiations. “Ukraine and
the EU will stand with the same position at the Minsk summit, and will speak
with one voice,” he said. But it is the voice of Russia and the separatists it
backs that has long been the problem.
Moscow
has pushed for federalization of Ukraine in an effort to give eastern regions more
powers, including blocking foreign policy decisions such as signing military
and trade agreements with other countries, multi-national alliances and trade
blocs.
But
Poroshenko, speaking at a Feb. 11 Cabinet meeting, said that Ukraine will
remain a unified state in accordance with the wishes of more than 85 percent of
its population. “Federalization is a seed that will not survive in Ukrainian soil,”
he said.
The
Kremlin has also been reluctant to see the leaky Ukraine-Russia border secured,
with monitoring by the OSCE. It continues to send troops, war machines and fuel
across the border under the guise of humanitarian convoys.
Most
recently, Russian equipment was used to attack a residential block in
Kramatorsk on Feb. 10, which is located some 95 kilometers from Donetsk. The OSCE
has said that the shells were fired from either Tornado or Smerch Multiple
Rocket Launch Systems, which have firing range between 70 and 90 kilometers.
Poroshenko said that 16 people were killed and 65 injured as a result, the overwhelming
majority civilians.
The
Ukrainian army also launched a counter-offensive on Feb. 10, capturing two
villages close to the city of Mariupol. Poroshenko said this moved part of the
frontline back to the one determined by the September Minsk agreements, the
previous peace deal.
That
line is key to today’s negotiations. It has steadily shifted west under heavy
separatist pressure and now they insist Ukraine pull its troops back from the
current contact line, according to a draft protocol of the meeting suggested by
the separatists.
Moscow
has insisted that Ukraine should talk directly to Luhansk and Donetsk People’s
Republics (LNR and DNR), the self-proclaimed administrative entities in the
east that are not officially party to negotiations. Kyiv, however, considers
them terrorist organizations. They are present at the Minsk negotiations, but
are not officially a part of the talks.
The
LNR/DNR draft protocol also suggests a cease-fire as of 10 a.m. on Feb. 12.
They want autonomy in the areas they control, and demand that “all decisions by
political and military leadership of Ukraine” on anti-terrorist operations in
Donbas are canceled, and that payments of pensions and social benefits are
restored.
The
protocol also suggests that a series of local elections should be held in the Donbas.
Yevhen Perebyinis, the spokesman for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, says this is
one agenda item could be agreed on, with a condition. “These elections must be
held under Ukrainian law and supervised by international organizations,” he
said.
“I hope
we’ll be able to reach agreements but this optimism is very cautious,” he said.
Kyiv Post deputy chief editor Katya Gorchinskaya can be reached at [email protected]
