As the Ukrainian military and separatist forces in the
east played the blame game over the shelling of central Donetsk on July 18,
analysts have warned that the attack may presage a worsening of the conflict.
The Ukrainian military described the heavy bombardment
of central Donetsk as a false flag operation by the separatists designed to
frame Ukrainian forces, while separatist leaders maintain the area was shelled
by Ukrainian forces.
After months of relative calm, the center of Donetsk was
hit by artillery on the evening of July 18, with shelling damaging several
buildings and, according to the separatists, killing at least one civilian. It is
the first time since late February that the city center has come under such
intense shelling.
Shelling has continued in
other areas as well, with one woman injured in Berezove on July 20 and three
killed in Avdeevka on July 19 during overnight attacks.
At a briefing on July 19,
Major General Andriy Taran, the head of the Ukrainian side of the Joint Center
for Control and Coordination (JCCC), said separatist forces had driven out of
the city to fire upon the center of it before returning and firing on Ukrainian
positions as if in retaliation. The shelling was done specifically to be able
to accuse Ukrainian forces of breaking the ceasefire and firing on civilians, Taran
said.
Meanwhile,
pro-Ukrainian bloggers argued that Ukrainian forces would not be able to strike
the center of the city from their positions, a claim which Ukrainian
authorities have also made in the past.
In
one case, following the bombing of a trolleybus in Donetsk in January that
killed more than a dozen civilians, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said it would
have been physically impossible for Ukrainian troops to fire that far into the
city, as their positions were too far away. Some residents of Donetsk have
taken to social media to make the same argument this time around.
But
without knowing which type of artillery was used in the attack, analysts said
it would be impossible to know for certain. Andriy Lysenko, a presidential
spokesman for the war zone, was unavailable for comment on the matter on July
20.
International
monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said they
had observed firing from within the city as well as return fire from Ukrainian
forces, but they stopped short of drawing any conclusions about who was
responsible for shelling the city.
At
the briefing on July 19, Ukrainian forces presented what they described as
proof of the separatists shelling themselves: audio of an intercepted phone conversation
between two fighters. In the audio, a voice identified by Taran as a separatist
fighter can be heard implying that the shelling came from a market in the
center of the city. The authenticity of the recording, which has been posted to
YouTube, could not be verified.
But
senior separatist commander Eduard Basurin scoffed at the notion
that the Russian-separatists would shell their own territory.
“The
Ukrainian side says we shelled ourselves. Do you believe we can shell
ourselves?” Basurin told news agency Reuters by phone.
Analysts
said the attack could be a prelude to a major military campaign, regardless of
who was behind it.
Military analyst Oleksiy Melnuk said he “wouldn’t rule
out” that the separatists were attacking their own territory, noting that the “leadership
wants a continuation of war most of all.”
“They know that if military action picks up again,
they will get another stream of so-called humanitarian aid (from Russia), and
certain issues will be resolved for them,” he said, adding that renewed
fighting would also help to distract the population from problems in the
occupied territory.
Independent
military expert Pavel Felgenhauer said while he could not say with certainty
who was guilty of the latest attack, “it certainly does look like a blame game
going on to bring back more fighting.”
“We’re
in a period of blame-shifting because a major campaign is coming. Anything can
happen right now because it’s so important for the separatists to shift the
blame. (They’ll say) ‘The rebels want peace, Russia wants peace, and Ukraine
just won’t give it to them,’” he said.
An hour prior to the shelling on July 18, separatist
leader Alexander Zakarchenko issued a statement ordering his men to “punish”
Ukrainian troops for any ceasefire violations.
“Any shots fired at our land, our homes, our families
and are children should be met with a suitable punishment. And by punishment I
mean the death of those people who are shooting at us,” Zakharchenko said in the statement posted on the separatists’
Vkontakte social media page.
Kyiv Post staff writer Allison Quinn can be reached
[email protected].
