WASHINGTON (AP) — The timing of Iran's deal to ship some enriched uranium to Turkey casts a cloud of suspicion over Tehran's motives, but the agreement could sow sufficient doubt to undermine or delay the U.S.-driven sanctions effort in the United Nations.
Iran’s acceptance of the swap — brokered by anti-sanctions governments in Brazil and Turkey — was met with expected skepticism in Washington and among its allies, who contend Iran will continue feverish work toward a nuclear weapon.
What’s more, the skeptics say, the Turkey deal would now leave Iran in an even stronger position in the nuclear chess game it has so deftly played against its U.S.-led antagonists. Throughout, Iran has claimed its nuclear program is designed only for power generation.
The transfer deal, its signers said, could take effect as early as a month from now, timing that’s suspiciously close to estimates of when the U.N. Security Council would take action on the U.S. push for a fourth round of anti-Iran sanctions.
On the surface, the Iranians would seem to have agreed to a variation of a deal first offered last fall by the United States, Russia, France and the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency. The difference this time is Iran is believed to have more nuclear material stockpiled, so would retain enough to make a nuclear weapon.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs acknowledged "it would be a positive step for Iran to transfer low-enriched uranium off of its soil, as it agreed to do last October."
But, he said, Monday’s deal also falls short, because Iran now is enriching uranium to a higher purity, beyond the level needed for nuclear power plants.
"Iran said today (Monday) that it would continue its 20 percent enrichment," Gibbs said, calling that yet another "direct violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions."
Gibbs said that Iran still must make clear that its nuclear program is intended only for peaceful purposes "or face consequences, including sanctions."
In a later briefing with reporters, Gibbs said the deal does nothing to change the steps or timing of the U.S. pursuit of a new round international sanctions.
"The words and the deeds of the Iranian leadership rarely coincide," Gibbs said.
He also said Iran must submit its proposal to the U.N. IAEA for formal consideration.
What’s more, Iran’s stockpile of enriched nuclear fuel has grown dramatically in the intervening half year since it first accepted, then rejected the original offer by the so-called "Vienna group."
Under the October deal, Iran would have sent most of its low-enriched uranium to Russia — in return for French-made fuel rods for an aging, American-built medical isotope reactor. That would have left Tehran with too little nuclear material for a weapon.
That is no longer the case.
Under the Turkey deal, Iran is sending the same amount of uranium, but its stockpile is far larger, and it would hold on to the more than 1,000 metric tons necessary for the weapons program.
Regardless, some experts believe, Iran made its latest move because it fears being hit with more U.N. sanctions.
"Iran is now back to accepting the earlier deal in every regard except that its uranium is going to Turkey instead of Russia," said James Acton, a nuclear associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Iran is banking on a diplomatic victory, wagering it can weaken growing resolve by Russia and China to support a fourth set of Security Council sanctions.
Moscow and Beijing were responsible for watering down the language of previous sanctions resolutions, but in recent months, appeared to swing behind the U.S., Britain and France — the three other veto-wielding Security Council members — in their push for new U.N. penalties.
Russia appeared, for the time, to be holding firm.
President Dmitry Medvedev cautiously welcomed Monday’s deal, but said he might not solve the larger problem.
"As far as I understand from some Iranian official statements, it will continue such work (uranium enrichment). In that case, the international community’s concerns could remain," he said.
China has not commented. Germany and Britain have voiced skepticism akin to Washington’s.
Regardless of the outcome on a new round of sanctions, past U.N. penalties have not diminished Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
In the end, that has left the U.S. and its allies will few options short of military action — or hectoring diplomacy.
"We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program," Gibbs said.
