WARSAW, Poland (AP) – In 2003, Poland and the Czech Republic were eager to strengthen ties with the U.S. when they agreed to back the superpower’s invasion of Iraq.
Now, Washington wants a new favor – permission to put missile defense bases on Polish and Czech territory – but it faces a psychological landscape altered by disappointment over the quagmire in Iraq and anxiety that the bases could spark a new arms race with Russia.
Neither factor is expected to doom the U.S. request, but both will play a role as Warsaw and Prague weigh whether to agree to host parts of the U.S. defense system.
The U.S. has made formal requests to place a radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, a system that together would be able to detect and destroy incoming ballistic missiles fired from Iran – which Washington considers an unpredictable “rogue state.”
Negotiations are expected to begin soon, though no dates have been set.
But “there’s a certain degree of distrust” in U.S. President George W. Bush’s administration, said Jiri Pehe, a Czech political analyst and director of New York University’s program in Prague.
“There was a high degree of trust in the ability of the Americans to win the war (in Iraq) and institute democracy,” Pehe said. “Now a lot of people think that this administration – which also happens to be the one that wants to put missile defense here – is basically not very able and that we shouldn’t get involved with them too much.”
Opinion surveys indicate reluctance, with critics worried that a strengthened military alliance with the U.S. could make their countries vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
A recent Polish poll showed that 53 percent of Poles opposed hosting a base, while 34 percent were in favor. The survey, by the Pentor institute, questioned 800 people from Jan. 23-25 for the Zycie Warszawy daily. No margin of error was provided.
It remains to be seen, however, what role public opinion will play. Despite some calls for referendums, the governments in each country oppose those proposals and are determined to keep the decision making with the politicians.
And so far, the ruling parties in each country have voiced support for the plan – but with reservations.
Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said Tuesday he is “in favor of reaching an agreement on the missile defense issue” so long as Warsaw can negotiate a good agreement with Washington – the clearest sign of support so far from the Polish government.
The Civic Democratic Party of Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek also supports the radar base – though his weak government must contend with opposition parties that are strongly against it.
Kaczynski’s government, however, hasn’t made clear if it will submit the decision to parliament or decide on the matter itself.
Meanwhile, Jiri Dienstbier, Czechoslovakia’s first post-communist foreign minister, appealed in a newspaper column published this week for Prague’s leaders to put the discussions on ice until after the U.S. presidential elections in November 2008.
He said the Bush administration “ignores NATO and the European Union and replaces them with ‘coalitions of willing’ and relies on a doctrine of preventive strikes whose tragic results we can see in Iraq.”
Overshadowing the debate is Moscow’s criticism of Washington’s attempts to place interceptors in what historically has been a buffer zone between Russia and the West – threats that provoke the most anxiety in Poland, which borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad as well as Moscow ally Belarus.
Further to the West, the Czech Republic is separated from Russia by several states, leaving many to view Moscow’s threats as a bluff that recalls the empty threats Russia issued as NATO expanded eastward in past years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted angrily to U.S. plans to deploy the site so close to its borders, saying Moscow does not trust U.S. claims that they are aimed to counter missile threats from Middle East and will take countermeasures.
And on Thursday, Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian military’s General Staff, said Moscow may unilaterally drop out of a key Soviet-era arms reduction treaty with the U.S. that banned medium-range nuclear missiles, Russian news agencies reported.
Following meetings Friday with the chief of Poland’s military General Staff, Franciszek Gagor, U.S. Gen. John Craddock, the top commander of NATO, said Russia’s worries were unfounded.
“It’s been clearly stated what the U.S. intention is, and that is to provide defense against missiles from a rogue nation,” Craddock said.
Poland’s Gagor said the missile defense system “poses no threat to any of our neighbors.”
