JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (Reuters) - Barack Obama's bid for the U.S. presidency was a longshot when he announced it to great fanfare on the steps of the Illinois capitol on a freezing day in February 2007.
At 45, he was a rising Democratic star who could make history as the first black U.S. president.
But he had only two years in U.S. Senate and no other national political experience. Former first lady Hillary Clinton, with six years in the Senate and support from many established party figures, was the clear favorite.
And America had never elected a black president.
But a well-oiled campaign operation, a hugely successful fund-raising effort, charisma and even luck have pushed Obama to the brink of victory in Tuesday’s election against Republican rival John McCain.
With a calm demeanor, soothing baritone and an idealistic message focusing on hope and bridging partisan divides, Obama has a steely intensity that opponents, including Clinton and McCain, have tended to underestimate.
“He’s as tough and competitive a person as I know but he’s also a very civil person and the two don’t always go hand in hand in politics,” Obama strategist David Axelrod said.
“I think maybe people misread what are very positive qualities as somehow a lack of killer instinct or something,” Axelrod said, adding that the 21-month-long campaign has tested the mettle of Obama, whose close-cropped hair is now grayer.
While amassing a $600 million war chest that shattered all fund-raising records and establishing a big network of grass-roots volunteers, Obama put together a staff known for its discipline and lack of leaks.
He racked up endorsements from high-profile figures such as talk show host Oprah Winfrey; former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker; Caroline Kennedy, daughter of slain President John F. Kennedy, and more recently, former Secretary of State Colin Powell.
Political analysts have likened the Obama campaign to the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004 for its efficiency, focused message and the choreography and polish of events and ads.
The Clinton and McCain camps were riven by staff infighting that spilled into the media. Both had periodic money troubles due to overspending and both had staff shake-ups.
In mid-October 2007, a Gallup poll showed Clinton with a nearly 30-point lead over Obama, creating a perception of inevitability for her campaign.
EARLY OPPOSITION TO IRAQ WAR
Obama’s early opposition to the Iraq war helped dent some of Clinton’s advantages. Clinton had voted for a resolution authorizing the 2003 invasion of Iraq, a stance unpopular with the base of her party. Like other Democrats who voted for that resolution, she later became a war critic.
Obama’s record as an Iraq war opponent and eloquent oratory energized students and upscale voters, who flocked to his rallies. But questions persisted about his ability to woo older and blue-collar Americans.
After winning the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, Obama seemed on a glide-path toward the nomination. But Clinton came back with a win in New Hampshire, setting the stage for a nearly six-month brawl in which Obama emerged the victor.
Along the way, he grappled with a controversy over videotapes that surfaced of his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, making racially charged and inflammatory remarks.
Obama calmed some of the controversy with a widely praised speech on race in March but it flared again when Wright repeated some of the incendiary comments. Obama then made a public break with the pastor.
Another storm erupted after Obama, at a fund-raiser, described small-town voters as people who “cling” to guns and religion because of bitterness over the economy.
Critics tagged Obama as an elitist but his campaign countered that image with a gauzy video at the August Democratic convention highlighting his upbringing by a single mother and grandparents who scrimped and saved to send him to the best schools.
With polls showing a tight race between Obama and McCain over the summer, the Republican had success trying to turn Obama’s ability to pack stadiums with huge crowds against him by depicting Obama as a “celebrity” and likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears.
McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate was initially popular and pushed him into a slight lead.
But in mid-September, the financial crisis broke out and Obama won plaudits for what voters saw as a calmer, more considered reaction. He has retained that lead.
It’s been Obama’s good fortune to run at a time when a record low 13 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction President George W. Bush is taking the country.
Political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia credited Obama with having run a “superb” campaign and noted he had faced a formidable rival in Clinton during the primary.
But Sabato, who predicts a solid win for Obama on Tuesday night, said that given public anger over the troubled economy and the Iraq war, it was inevitable that this would be a Democratic year. “Any Democratic candidate who had been nominated in 2008 who was mainstream was destined to be president. Period,” Sabato said.
