Poland's Jaroslaw Kaczynski, vying to succeed his twin brother as president after his death in a plane crash, has seen his support rise sharply and now trails his main rival by just two percentage points, a poll showed on Saturday.
Kaczynski, who heads a right-wing opposition party, has trailed Bronislaw Komorowski, an ally of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in all polls since the April 10 crash in Russia that killed his brother Lech and 95 others.
But a week before the June 20 election, a survey from TNS OBOP commissioned by the public television news channel showed Kaczynski had nearly erased the gap with Komorowski.
The poll put Kaczynski’s support at 36 percent, up eight points from the last TNS OBOP survey on May 20, and had Komorowski on 38 percent, down 15 points.
Two other polls, by Homo Homini and GfK Polonia, that were published on Saturday gave Komorowski bigger leads of 8.6 and 13 points, respectively.
The outcome of the election matters because Poland’s president can veto legislation and has a say in foreign and security policy. Like his brother, Kaczynski could be expected to block government laws if elected head of state.
Some political observers have criticised Komorowski for conducting a lacklustre campaign and for a series of minor gaffes that have been pounced on by his opponents.
Polls also suggest a low turnout, which analysts say could favour Kaczynski because his core electorate is likely to be more energised following the death of his brother.
"This is a very serious fight over what Poland will look like over the next few years and also because the chances of both candidates are close to even," Tusk said in Tczew, northern Poland, on Saturday.
Most of the shortened presidential campaign has been overshadowed by mourning for those who died in the plane crash and in recent floods that have claimed some 20 lives and caused damaged estimated to exceed 2 billion euros.
In recent days, Komorowski’s camp has stepped up attacks on Kaczynski, questioning whether the prickly conservative’s mostly conciliatory campaign was genuine.
Komorowski has refused to take part in the only televised debate between the top candidates on Sunday organised by the public broadcaster, calling instead for a one-on-one debate with Kaczynski.
If neither canidate wins more than 50 percent in the first round on June 20, a run-off between the top two contenders will be held two weeks later.
The TNS OBOP poll, which was conducted on a sample of 1,000 Poles on June 10-11, showed Komorowski would beat Kaczynski in a second round by 56 percent to 44 percent.
